By Dan Ambrose: Canelo Alvarez has been talking for weeks about how he plans to knock out Gennadiy Golovkin for their trilogy tonight at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
If you saw how bad Canelo looked in his last fight against Dmitry Bivol, it will be very difficult for him to take Golovkin down or hurt him enough for the referee or the corner to stop the fight.
Canelo’s stamina was horrible against Bivol, and it’s doubtful he improved in that area. The Mexican star says he did a lot of running during training camp, but he has always struggled with stamina throughout his career, even before he developed knee problems.
It’s hard to imagine Canelo scoring a knockout over the steel-chinned Golovkin, as he was unable to hurt the Kazakh in the 24 rounds the two have shared.
Canelo’s best bet to stop Golovkin is to go after him early with body shots the same way Ryota Murata and Sergiy Derevyanchenko did.
Those guys had success going to GGG’s body in the first half of their fights. However, in the second half of those fights, Golovkin punished both of them and made them think twice before going for his abdomen.
“I think if this fight is stopped, it’s because of Gennadiy Golovkin’s body shots to the mid-body, and it might even require the referee or Golovkin’s own trainer to step in,” Chris Mannix told DAZN.
“I don’t think Golovkin is going to resign. I don’t think that’s in him at all.”
“I don’t see a fall for Canelo. He has been a professional since he was 16 years old and he has never been down,” Sergio Mora said. “That thick neck, it helps, and that fighting style.
“So, no, I don’t think he’ll get shot down, and I don’t even think he’ll get hurt. But I can see Golovking hurt. Maybe he didn’t get knocked down, but I can see him hurt.”
“Canelo, early in his career, we wondered if he would turn out to be a little pot-bellied,” Chris Mannix said. “If you remember that fight against José Miguel Cotto early in his career, his first fight in the US.
“I was wondering if he would have the kind of chin that would make him a championship fighter. He has that and something else.”
“In the first round of Canelo-Golovkin 2, we were all a little bit impressed with how Canelo took the fight to Golovkin. He took more than 60 seconds”.
“Golovkin is on the wrong side of 40, and Canelo got better in their rematch. But in these kinds of rivalries, it’s dangerous to underestimate the old lion,” Max Kellerman told ESPN.
“It would be really silly to underestimate Golovkin, especially the way he faced him in the first two fights,” said Mike Coppinger. “Yeah, that was four or five years ago, but Golovkin won more of those rounds than Canelo, and these guys hate each other.
“When I spoke to Canelo on Wednesday, he said, ‘I’m going to punish Golovkin. He is a faker and I hate him. So, I think we’re going to have a great fight.
“You would hate that Canelo isn’t underestimating GGG,” Kellerman said.
“What stands out to me is that Canelo is now coming to terms with his loss to Bivol. At first, he said that he thought he had won. Of course he didn’t win. I thought he won two rounds against Bivol in May,” said Coppinger.
“Canelo is coming to terms with his loss now, which I think is great, and I think he seems more motivated than ever. The most important thing is that he hates Golovkin. He really hates it. This is not pre-fight bravado, trying to sell a fight.
“He doesn’t like that Golovkin goes back to when he tested positive for PED. He said it was from contaminated meat that was consumed in Mexico. Golovkin later said that he noticed footprints on Canelo.
“Canelo can’t stand it and says that Golovkin is a fraud, a fraud, and he wants to punish him. I really think he means that. He is not going to try to box, dance and move.
“This is going to be a brutal fight, and I think Golovkin is going to bring it too,” Coppinger said.
“Mike, Canelo actually lost his last fight decisively. He lost his last fight to Dmitry Bivol, but Canelo won his first belt at junior middleweight,” Kellerman said.
“Bivol is probably the best light heavyweight in the world, and he has the most technically difficult style to beat.
“If you keep moving up in weight, there’s no shame in eventually losing to the best guy in the biggest division you competed in. I can imagine the loss would motivate Canelo against GGG, and Canelo is the favorite to win.
“Do you think the loss to Bivol will have an effect on Canelo in this fight?”
“I think it’s actually going to help Canelo because he rationally realizes that he was moving up in weight against a really tough fighter, and against Golovkin, he felt very comfortable against him,” Coppinger said.
“He knows his style, and he knows there are going to be no surprises, and I think he’s more motivated than ever. There was a lot of talk about Canelo not really being that focused on Bivol last time. Maybe he was reading too much of his own hype.
“I was playing a lot of golf. He is much more focused this time because he said this week that he wants to finish Golovkin’s career. Golovkin respected him a lot and said: ‘Who is Canelo to say that he is going to finish someone’s career? That’s my decision.’”
“Let’s talk about Gennadiy Golovkin. What did you get out of your time with him? Kellerman said.
“He was a little sullen and playful as well,” Coppinger said. “I think he feels a little disrespected. He knows that people are discounting him.
“When I asked him if he liked being the underdog, he didn’t seem to accept that he is the underdog. He must know deep down that he is. I think Golovkin should know that this could be his last big fight.
“He says he has no plans to retire afterward no matter what, and this is his last fight with DAZN. He is going to have a lot of flexibility. One thing that is important to note is that this is his first fight at 168 pounds. He has been doing 160 since he was in the 2004 Olympics.”
“A long time at weight, sometimes an older fighter can benefit from a weight gain,” Kellerman said. “It seems to me that this fight has the potential to affect GGG’s legacy more than Canelo’s. If he loses and loses the series with Canelo.
“Yeah, he’s the older fighter, I get that, but let’s look back and ask who Golovkin beat? If he wins, we’ll say, ‘He really beat Canelo two out of three.’ The first fight was a draw, but most people think GGG won.
“It wasn’t his fault that when he was in his prime, no middleweight star got in there with him except Canelo. Do you agree that this potentially affects GGG’s legacy more than Canelo’s?
“I think Canelo has the strongest resume for sure. He has several big, undisputed wins at 168, and world titles in four weight classes,” Coppinger said.
“Golovkin is a unified middleweight and has had a legendary streak at middleweight, but he hasn’t beaten any of the best besides Danny Jacobs. That was a pretty close fight. In fact, I wrote it down for Danny Jacobs.
“Yeah, I think it’s bigger for Golovkin’s legacy, but on the other hand, if Canelo loses to Golovkin at 40 years old when he’s a five-to-one favorite, that will also leave a lot of question marks. Coppinger said.
“It will, but people look for trends in racing. Canelo was winning and undefeated for a long time after the Mayweather loss, and then he started losing.
“He lost to Bivol and he loses to GGG. I think, as you said, the deeper resume because Canelo used his star power and the bags that he meant to his opponents to attract better fighters than GGG was able to attract and he was seen as very dangerous. Maybe the risk wasn’t worth the reward when GGG was at its best,” Kellerman said.
