It’s a new “season” for us in our predictions, as 2024 has begun!
We’re getting things rolling this week, with Artur Beterbiev (19-0, 19 KOs) defending his WBC, IBF and WBO light heavyweight titles against Callum Smith (29-1, 21 KOs), Saturday night on ESPN and ESPN+. .
Will Beterbiev remain undefeated or can Smith spring the surprise?
Scott Christ (0-0)
I promised myself that I would take the 2024 “competition” seriously and not make so many choices that I only slightly believe in; I believe in them, but I also know that they would be sincere disappointments and most likely won’t happen. And most of the time, those choices don’t work out. But I want to do something “new year, so do I” here.
The only problem is that I think even a diminished Artur Beterbiev is a markedly better fighter than Callum Smith, and the idea that Beterbiev is diminished is mere speculation, as it has been for several fights, that he will age sooner rather than later. Beterbiev is a better boxer than Smith, who was dominated by Canelo Alvarez and should have lost to John Ryder. If those guys can attack Smith and punish him a little, Beterbiev should be able to be Beterbiev again. If he has lost 20 percent, he beats Smith. He will have to have lost 40 for Smith to have a reasonable chance of beating him, and even then he may not.
Smith is a good fighter. Beterbiev is something more than that. I’ll predict the stop streak ends here. Beterbiev UD-12
Wil Esco (0-0)
It seems like the general consensus is that Artur Beterbiev is more or less on borrowed time before he ages in the ring and it shows. Obviously, Father Time is unbeaten and Beterbiev won’t be able to keep this up forever, but the question is whether Callum Smith is the man to do it this weekend. I do not think so. Callum Smith is a pretty strong and robust fighter, but I don’t think he really has the dynamics of his game to achieve this victory, and he will have to expose himself if he wants to get to Beterbiev before he gets to him. .
I think Beterbiev, at least in this outing, won’t have such a significant drop in form that he can’t go about his business here. Smith has height and reach on his side, but I can’t help but remember that he also had those advantages over Canelo Alvarez despite being forced to defend himself for most of that fight. Beterbiev catches Smith with the big shot and stops him late. Beterbiev TKO-10
John Hansen (0-0)
Callum Smith brings to mind a light heavyweight equivalent of Scott’s encapsulation of Jack Catterall: consistent, not exceptional, but solid enough to beat anyone having a bad night without being good enough to upset anyone. someone great who is really on his game on fight night. If Beterbiev is compromised in any significant way by his age, his litany of injuries, or Eddie Hearn’s critical, distracted looks, Smith is stable and capable enough to take advantage.
But I’m not too worried about Beterbiev stumbling. What worries me most is that another injury will occur during or after the fight and that it will end any chance of a showdown between Bivol and Beterbiev later in 2024. He has already had injuries all over his body, from his infected jaw to his shoulder and ribs. …I just hope he doesn’t come out of this fight with trench foot or bunting palsy or any other rare illness that keeps him out of action. Age will catch up with him eventually, as it does with all exceptional athletes, and I just want to see him make the most of his remaining time at the top. Beterbiev KO-6
Patrick Stumberg (0-0)
We’ve been waiting for Artur Beterbiev’s wheels to fall off for years, and while there was a bit of a wobble against Anthony Yarde, he still managed to defeat a heavy-handed young bully who was having the night of his life. Whether that means he still has the power to beat Dmitry Bivol is another question entirely, but I’m sure it’s too much for Smith.
To “Mundo’s” credit, he definitely looks revitalized at 175. He has brought his power with him and may have even multiplied it. However, it can’t change what he fundamentally is: someone who confronts his opponents head-on rather than using his prodigious size to stay out of harm’s way. He went from being bullied by John Ryder to being bullied by Canelo Alvarez despite a full year to address the weakness exposed by “The Gorilla.”
He is not elusive enough to stay out of Beterbiev’s line of fire and no one south of 200 can survive Beterbiev’s line of fire. He may get on Beterbiev’s nerves once or twice, but once Beterbiev starts consistently forcing Smith into the ropes, it’s only a matter of time. Beterbiev TKO-10
