One can see with their eyes that Arsenal are a different beast this season compared to last, and most Arsenal fans were excited about what they saw in 2021-22. Clearly, much of that enthusiasm was based on the expectation of further improvement, and it has been.
Recruitment has also been key in this improvement, of course. William Saliba and Gabriel Jesus have greatly improved the backbone of the team. Oleksandr Zinchenko has only been less influential for reasons of availability. However, increasing quality through recruitment has not been a one-window affair.
Ramsdale, White, Gabriel, Partey, Odegaard, Tomiyasu plus the continued development of Saka and Smith Rowe (and Xhaka!) have raised the technical level of the team considerably. These are all players who can handle the ball in tight quarters and have a variety of clubs in the bag when it comes to ball circulation. That is, in my opinion, the key element in improving Arsenal.
So far this Premier League season, Leeds United away from home is the only game I could point to and say that Arsenal did not demonstratively dominate the game. There are other fixtures that are more debatable: Crystal Palace and Southampton away, it really depends on how you view Manchester United’s loss (United were very clinical/a bit lucky or Arsenal got caught on the counter attack by a good team).
It really is as simple as this; Arsenal have found a squad that is repeatable with these players. What’s happening is simple math (or geography), they’re spending more time with the ball in danger zones than they did last season. They are further up the pitch and spend more time locking the opposition into their own goal.
When Arsenal (somewhat unfortunately) fell behind against West Ham on Monday night, there was a sense of calm among fans and players alike. The Gunners were clearly on top in the first half, enjoying most of the possession and territory and little was barren.
At half time many of us generally felt that Arsenal probably needed to improve on the final action, but that if the second half was played the same way as the first, Arsenal would win the game.
Yeah, I think this is a don’t panic situation. It takes a bit more decisiveness in the final action, but I think Arsenal have been largely good. https://t.co/6oJzEkQPXK
— Tim Stillman (@Stillmanator) December 26, 2022
The team haven’t fallen behind very often this season, but when they have, or when the opposition have drawn, Arsenal haven’t had to change course or course. They just stay true to their squad, dominate the ball, dominate the territory and keep opponents clinging to the edge of the cliff in their own box while attackers tap dance on their toes.
Like I said, your eyes tell you that Arsenal have been a more dominant team this season, the raw numbers don’t necessarily tell you this; but the underlying data does.
Shots per 90 Possession Average for 2021-2215.254% Average for 2022-2315.853%
The basic data illustrates that Arteta’s team is taking slightly more shots per game than last season with a slightly higher possession count. However, let’s dive into the shooting data first to illustrate why there is a greater sense of dominance from the team and confidence from the fans.
Shots (XG in brackets)Shots Conceded (XG in brackets)Average Shot Distance (in yards) 2021 Season Average-2215.2 (1.7)11.0 (1.3)17.8 2022 Season Average-2315.8 (2.3)7.9 (0.86)16.1
Once we add the XG to those shots, we see that while the shot count hasn’t increased significantly on average, the quality of those shots has. Arsenal are producing more than half a XG goal per game compared to last season. We can also see that the team has become much better at suppressing shots, the opposition are taking three fewer shots per game compared to last season. Average shooting distance has advanced more than a yard and a half, contributing to higher shot quality.
In summary, Arsenal’s average Premier League game last season saw Arsenal take around 15 shots while the opponent took roughly 11 with Arsenal shading the XG 1.7 to 1.3. This is what many of those endless 1-0 wins felt like when Rob Holding was thrown over them into the dying coals with five fingers held high. This season, the team has significantly widened that gap by taking exactly twice as many shots compared to the opposition on a comfortable XG shock.
And when you keep opponents boxed in, eventually things break down for you, as we saw against West Ham. Odegaard’s magnificent pass to split Xhaka’s defense during the first half came within inches of being the assist of the season. There is perhaps an irony in that when Odegaard received an assist from him later in the game, it was via a misdirected shot.
When you consistently dominate territory and are able to keep the numbers ahead, that’s more likely to happen. Keeping defenses under the grill for extended periods means that chaos will likely work in your favor eventually. One of the most telling stats, in my opinion, is how often the team is scoring on rebounds this season – the ball falls for Arsenal in the box a bit more often due to a) how much time they spend in that box of the field of play and b) the number of players present.
Shots that result in another shot attemptGoals that come from another shot attempt Season average 2021-221,740.34 Season average 2022-232,070.47
Possession can be a risky metric to deal with. It often depends on the state of the game, many teams actively don’t want to dominate possession. For Arteta’s Arsenal, possession matters. Broadly speaking, they are a possession team. But where that possession occurs is critical. There’s a reason Arteta spent his early transfer windows propping up the team’s back compartment.
He needed that technical certainty before he could commit to five players in front of the ball in the way he envisioned. A small breakdown of the possession data below shows that there has been a change in where Arsenal have possession of the ball. There is a big increase in touches from the final third and touches from the penalty area. This is not barren possession.
PossessionTouches in the last thirdTouches in the penalty area Half season 2021-2253%168,425.3 Half season 2022-2354%197,732.7
Arsenal’s improvement this season is not complicated, they are having more balls in more dangerous areas and they stay longer in those areas. That’s down to good training, of course, but also great recruiting. The club has been able to put the right players with the right attributes in this squad and make it repeatable. May it continue for a long time.
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