Pool B came to a dramatic end as England and the USA advanced to the round of 16 after victories over Wales and Iran respectively. England now take on Senegal on Sunday December 4 at 2pm ET on FS1.
England’s next rivals
The advantage of the knockout round is that England have three of their opponent’s games to review from the group stage of the tournament. Senegal lost to the Netherlands in their opening match, but bounced back with wins against Qatar and Ecuador. Senegal showed courage in the final game against Ecuador. Ecuador only needed a draw, and Senegal was forced to take the lead twice.
England will take solace in the knowledge that star striker Sadio Mane is not in the team. Mane was ruled out days before the tournament after being injured in his last game with Bayern Munich before the World Cup break. Senegal’s squad has shown the solidity of the group, despite the absence of Mane. This is evidenced by Senegal’s five goals in this World Cup scored by a different player.
a new challenge
England have never met Senegal in the World Cup. To assess how best to deal with the reigning African Cup of Nations (AFCON) champions, I looked at their performances in the group stage.
against Holland
Senegal were unlucky enough to concede two against the Netherlands. Both teams were almost even in possession, passing accuracy and shots on goal. Goals were awarded late in the game, which usually signifies a lapse in concentration or focus. England play a possession game and pass the ball into the wide channels more often. The Netherlands did this more than any of their Group A opponents.
against Qatar
Unfortunately, the hosts were unable to muster any notable resistance to any of their opponents. However, Qatar’s only goal of the tournament came against Senegal. Muntari’s headbutt exposed a vulnerability in aerial battles. England have aerial prowess with Harry Kane, Harry Maguire and John Stones leading the way.
against equator
In the last match of the group stage against Ecuador, Senegal knew that nothing less than victory would allow them to advance. Ecuador dominated possession but were less effective in converting that possession into chances. Senegal was much more efficient when they had the ball.
The AFCON champions played ball after ball over the top. The forward had the rhythm to make these long balls unsettle the Ecuadorian defense. Senegal could look to do the same against England, who will surely look to dominate possession. Senegal could target weaknesses at the back that were evident with Iran’s opening goal against England.
England potential against Senegal
So far, Gareth Southgate has opted for two centre-backs, Harry Maguire and John Stones, in all three of England’s group games. This frees up a player to fill the midfield.
The midfield trio of Jordan Henderson, Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice were ruthlessly effective against Wales. Rice primarily played in the holding midfielder position, allowing Bellingham and Henderson the freedom to play forward. However, at various stages of the game it was as if the three of them were rotating through the responsibility. This made it difficult for Wales to track the men in midfield.
Southgate tends to become more cautious as England progress through a tournament. It’s hard to imagine he’ll stick with a defense of two against Senegal. Especially when Senegal was so effective with the long ball. If Southgate keeps the back two, which I think he should, then a high line is a must to catch the Senegal forwards in the offside trap. As long as Harry Maguire keeps up with him, this shouldn’t be a problem.
Competing priorities
Opting for three back would mean sacrificing the rotating midfield triangle that was so effective against Wales. This has a ripple effect on the forward three. Without enough lengths in midfield, the two strikers playing Harry Kane will drop deeper. This will highlight England’s attack, who scored nine goals in the group stage, a new record for an England team in the World Cup.
Assuming Southgate sticks with 4-3-3, the next question is which two strikers should play against Harry Kane? Phil Foden and Marcus Rashford started against Wales in place of Bukayo Saka and Raheem Sterling. In the first half against Wales, Rashford and Foden looked bright but not clinical. Rashford had a chance at half and was only denied by Welsh goalkeeper Danny Ward. For the second half, the forwards switched sides and that made all the difference.
difficult decisions
Saka scored two goals against Iran. Rashford now has three goals in the tournament, including a spectacular free kick against Wales. Even more impressive is that Rashford has three goals despite starting only one of three games. The choice of who starts is a good dilemma to have. Based on the second half performance against Wales, Southgate should start Rashford and Foden against Senegal.
England needs to maximize the threat of wide channels, as the Netherlands did. Also, England must increase the number of crosses coming into the box, as Qatar did. The best way for Southgate to achieve both goals is to start with Trent Alexander-Arnold. The Liverpool right-back is a prolific center back and knows how to hug the touchline.
Waiting for the quarterfinals
If England is successful in the round of 16, potential opponents in the quarter-finals could be France or Poland. The defending World Cup champions won Group D, while Poland barely made it out of the Group C group stage.
No doubt Southgate will again be cautious if England go that far. Senegal have a lot to say on the matter, and England must be ready.
PHOTO: IMAGO / Moritz Müller
