Shortly before the season started, I wrote an article predicting that the presence of Gabriel Jesus as a center forward would see Gabriel Martinelli’s game progress to a new level this season. The purpose of this article is to gloat over how right he was. Seriously, I don’t think it was a guess on my part.
Better, the more mobile striker gets the better from the front is an obvious prediction. I wanted to see how Martinelli’s game has improved so far this season and test some of my ‘predictions’. The Brazilian has 690 Premier League minutes to his name this season compared to 1,860 in 2021-22, there is plenty of time for this sample size to flatten the data.
Jesus has been fit for the first eight games and Arsenal have been playing very well, dominating every game they have played so far. The pudding, where we are told the proof is hidden, is still baking. Or something. The eye test tells you that Martinelli’s game has improved this season, he has provided a constant source of danger for Arsenal’s attack.
What surprised me, however, looking at their data, is where the numbers show a shift from last season. So far, his expected goals per 90 total of 0.27 is the lowest of his four seasons at the club, even though he is shooting more often and shooting on goal more often.
XGp90Shots p90SOTp90 2019-200.310.411.63 2020-210.520.313.06 2021-220.340.292.42 2022-230.270.393.13
Part of my preseason thesis was that Jesus could move in wide areas and allow Martinelli to move into some of those more central areas. “Jesus knows how to facilitate for a striker who likes to engage players.” However, that is not really what has happened. Jesus has moved in some of those wide left areas, and on occasion Martinelli has appeared in central positions.
But in reality, it is Xhaka and Zinchenko that Martinelli is rotating with, while Jesus is free to drift wherever he wants. Many of Martinelli’s data profiles are a very natural winger who often plays close to the touchline and stretches the game. Even his average shooting distance has been a bit further from goal this season because most of his shots involve him cutting from wide stances with the ball at his feet.
Average shooting distance in yards 2019-2013.2 2020-2113.1 2021-2214.4 2022-2316.9
I think the first thing to say here is that the presence of Gabriel Jesús puts less pressure on Martinelli to get into scoring positions. Lacazette had almost no goal threat, his role in the number 9 position was to facilitate Saka and Martinelli, who had to be relied on to move upfield and take shots. A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about Saka’s revised role this season as a much more fixed touchline presence.
While his role is a little more fluid than the one assigned to Saka, Martinelli’s data is much more outlined than you might expect from a winger. On the most basic creative level, he’s taking more touches this season and he’s passing the ball more, which tells you he has a bigger role in construction than he did last year.
Pass p90 Touch p90 2019-2018.637.2 2020-2124.538.9 2021-2229.644.0 2022-2337.356.0
We must recognize that Arsenal still have four games against Liverpool and Manchester City this season, which could lower some of those averages, as well as a couple of games against Chelsea. However, the jump in the numbers of passes and touches is significant. This is in the context of a team that is dominating possession and territory much more potently this season.
Martinelli’s touch count isn’t the result of receding into more defensive areas, either. The addition of Zinchenko has made Arsenal more confident in that area. Arsenal also had to play a lot with Nuno Tavares in that position last season and needed a little more protection from his left-wing partner.
Touches in defensive third p90Touches in middle third p90Touches in offensive third p90Total distance carried p90
In that final column, we can see that he receives the ball with his feet and also attacks the right back more often. Once again, Arsenal’s general improvement in attack, combined with the technical security offered by Xhaka and Zinchenko on that left flank, means they can be encouraged to take on players. This is translating into another type of behavior, more winged. This is where the presence of Gabriel Jesus is significant once again.
Crosses p90 2019-202.16 2020-212.15 2021-222.32 2022-234.16
This is where part of my preseason premise was really accurate. Not only is Martinelli not under as much pressure to get into goal-scoring positions, but he has a striker willing to attack balls into the area, whether they be crosses, cuts or deflected shots. Or as I said in July: “I think having a moving target in the penalty area will be a very valuable ally for Martinelli.
“Breaking the lock and breaking into enemy territory only to find your partner in crime still sitting in the passenger seat of the getaway car is not an effective heist… Martinelli is a player who thrives in busy spaces.” The penalty area is a more crowded space than last season, so the player has more incentive to take on the full-backs and bring balls into the area.
Passes that travel more than 40 yards the width of the court p90 2019-202.16 2020-212.15 2021-222.32 2022-234.16
I’ve included this data on crossing the ball, just because I think it emphasizes how wide Martinelli often has possession (without possession, he often plays center forward to create space for movement by Xhaka and Jesus). Arsenal have started to use game changes much more effectively this season and Martinelli is executing them much more frequently.
That speaks to receiving the ball in a wider starting position much more often: the wider it is, the more likely it is that you can hit a pass more than 40 yards wide. My premise that Jesus would bring out the best in Martinelli was correct, some elements of my thinking turned out to be correct but I didn’t really anticipate the main development: that Jesus’ presence as a striker would free Martinelli to be an attacking winger rather than a second striker. center.
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