Its author Bob Smith was so intrigued by this matchup that he decided to come out of retirement as a boxing writer for a short preview. He started writing articles inspired by the rise of Golovkin in late 2012 and early 2013 and wrote about 60 articles for this website over a few years before falling back into obscurity around 2015.
This is a significant fight. It is not too late, as some suggest. Yes, it is true that Golovkin has aged and Canelo has improved. But as someone who thought that Golovkin clearly won the first fight and also got through the second fight, at worst it should have been a draw, this makes the fight even more interesting. Let’s start with the first fight.
the first fight
According to CompuBox, Golovkin outpointed Alvarez in 11 of 12 rounds and overall by almost 50 punches, which should have led to a clear decision victory. After all, the point of boxing is to hit and not be hit, and that’s what Golovkin did. However, the judges were impressed by two things: first, Golovkin did not completely take out Canelo, as he did many of his previous opponents, and second, Alvarez outboxed Golovkin with powerful punches, and his punches were faster and flashier, due to their quick hands. and beautiful technique. However, of the 24 media that covered the first fight, 20 scored the fight for Golovkin, 3 thought it was a draw, and only one scored the fight for Álvarez.
I think Golovkin was surprised and intimidated by Alvarez’s hand speed and punch stamina and countering ability, so he kept a safe distance and didn’t push for the knockout. And at the time, Golovkin not winning by knockout was quite an achievement: I think he had tied the record for most consecutive title defenses, or nearly tied it. And he had a streak of 21 knockouts in a row before being forced to go the distance by the fast and tough Daniel Jacobs. So one factor in the judge’s willingness to declare a draw was that Golovkin didn’t even knock Alvarez down, while he did in their previous 22 fights, winning 21 of 22 by knockout.
Second, it is true that Canelo outpowered Golovkin in 7 of the 12 rounds. It’s hard to find people who believe that Alvarez clearly won the first fight, or that Adelaide Byrd’s scoring was accurate, but arguably in some of the rounds, Alvarez made the most effective power shots, at least numerically. Stylistically, Alvarez appeals to an American and Mexican audience, he has very fast hands and crisp punches, so regardless of impact, his powerful punches seem more effective than a forward Eastern European style, even if the punches are like kicks. for a mule
the second fight
Since the first fight was declared a draw, the boxing public demanded a rematch, which happened a year later in 2018. And the result was equally controversial: Of the 19 media outlets that covered the fight, 10 scored the fight for Golovkin, 8 ruled it a draw and only 1 of the outlets favored an Alvarez win.
According to CompuBox, Golovkin won 8 of the rounds, Alvarez won three of the rounds, and they threw the same number of punches in 1 round. So this should have led to a clear win for Golovkin on the hit-or-don’t-hit condition. But not so fast: Alvarez outpowered Golovkin in every round since 4the round onwards, except the 5the round. And if he looks at a subset of those power shots, body shots, Canelo landed 46 punches to just 6 punches for Golovkin.
Again, there are two factors that provide a reason, if not a justification, why some judges and fans thought Canelo deserved the win. The first was that Golovkin proposed a “Mexican-style” fight in which the two would go to the center of the ring and fight it out. In this, Alvarez saw Golovkin’s bluff and stepped up for this fight, making the smart assumption that Golovkin couldn’t keep up with his fast hand speed, tremendous counterpunching and better inside game, as well as his physical strength. higher. So Golovkin adjusting and boxing from distance and outjabbing Canelo should have given him the win in a technical sense, but in the eyes of many fans, Canelo solved the Golovkin conundrum and successfully took on the powerful puncher. The other factor was that Golovkin was very hesitant to go after Alvarez, especially to the body, fearing quick counterattacks, likely with an uppercut.
I do think the reason Golovkin lost all 2North Dakota Fight on the judge’s cards if not CompuBox was the advice of his trainer at the time, Abel Sanchez, to avoid throwing body shots almost entirely. I don’t understand this decision: Body shots would have worn Canelo down, made him less likely to move forward, and set up Golovkin’s overhand right hand. Maybe a boxing expert can tell me why a trainer would recommend this. In any case, Golovkin parted ways with Abel Sanchez after this fight, and Alvarez secured a hard-fought decision win.
from the second fight
There is absolutely no question that since the second fight, Alvarez has had the better record and has improved more and achieved more. Let’s review what each fighter has done since September 2018:
Golovkin fought only four times in the last four years: he defeated Steve Rolls, who is not an entity, by 4the round KO, and earned a close, close decision with Sergey Derevyanchenko, which some argue could have gone the other way, and then two stoppages against Kamil Szeremata (7the round RTD) and Ryota Murata (9the round KO). In his most recent fight, he seemed quite concerned about Ryota Murata’s body work. Also, he lost a couple of rounds earlier before coming back around 5the round on dominating Murata to the KO. All of his fights were in the middleweight division. Some might argue that he has aged, and he certainly has chronologically, however, his last four fights were not as intense, so in terms of rounds and damage done, Alvarez may indeed be the “older” fighter.
Álvarez has a stellar resume since 2018. He fought 8 times and also in different divisions. I had a 3dr round KO of Rocky Fielding, then defeated Daniel Jacobs at the middleweight level, by UD, and I will say he was more impressive in his victory than Golovkin. After this, he defeated a fading but still dangerous Kovalev by KO in the 11th.the round. A little about this fight: Kovalev was on the downside of his career, yes, but what kept him cautious and honest during the fight was Alvarez’s speed and counterpunch advantage, in the same way that Golovkin was also cautious in both fights.
After this, Alvarez made a clean sweep of the super middleweight division titles, I think the first time this has happened, and really found his groove at that weight. In succession, he defeated Callum Smith for UD, Billy Joe Saunders for RTD in the 9the round and Caleb Plant by TKO in the 11ththe round, with only a brief three-round tune-up fight with Avni Yildrim, which he won by KO. But the most significant thing is that these three fighters were undefeated champions and Álvarez beat them all! This is quite a remarkable achievement – having to stylistically fit all of these different fighters and excel at all of them. This is far more impressive than anything Golovkin has done since 2018 and Alvarez got better and learned something new in each of these fights. .
Alvarez learned his limits against Dmitry Bivol, a tough and skilled light heavyweight champion in his prime, who won a UD against Alvarez earlier this year. Still, it says a lot about Alvarez that he took the fight on the advice of his trainers, and I still think he can beat everyone except maybe top 5 heavyweights like Bivol, Beterbiev, Joe Smith or Anthony. yard. Hopefully, with the loss, he won’t try to move up to cruiserweight. I still think he will lose any rematch against Dmitry Bivol and should move on.
Malignaggi and Marquez
There are two scenarios for how this fight will play out: predictable and exciting. The predictable result, stated by Paulie Malignaggi, is that Alvarez’s team has successfully waited for Golovkin to age, and that Alvarez has improved significantly since then, while Golovkin has slowed down due to age or, at best, , has stalled. Two variants of this thesis are that Álvarez is the better fighter now and will win a clear and definitive unanimous decision or that Álvarez is very likely to knock out Golovkin due to the difference in skill and experience.
Rather, Marquez’s thesis is that a strong analogy can be drawn between the Alvarez-Golovkin trilogy and the four Pacquiao-Marquez fights, where Marquez was even robbed of a victory in several close and closely contested bouts.
So which thesis is correct? They both have problems. The problem with Malignaggi’s thesis is that while Alvarez has chronologically waited for Golovkin, he has had the toughest fights and accumulated the most attrition since then. Furthermore, Alvarez is now 32 years old and thus has been a professional boxer for more than half of his life. And the KO version of this thesis ignores the chin and defense of Golovkin, who has never been knocked out or even knocked down in any boxing contest, professional or amateur, and apparently even in combat.
The problem with Marquez’s thesis is that Pacquaio was an aggressive and sometimes sloppy fighter who constantly advanced, and that Marques was a defensive-oriented fighter with a higher boxing IQ; rather, it is Golovkin who is moving forward, and Alvarez is a defensive-oriented fighter with a higher boxing IQ. So, if anything, this should work in Alvarez’s favor given that he’s the counterpuncher.
Unfortunately, I think the outcome will be predictable: Alvarez will intimidate Golovkin with his improvement, his hand speed, his combinations, his defense and his body shots. I see two likely outcomes: either Alvarez gets a clear UD win or Alvarez gets a clear UD win partly due to a body shot knockdown.
The previous two fights are a matter of historical record, and fans are free to come back and re-score them at any time. But for this fight, Alvarez is the more improved and cunning fighter, and despite Golovkin’s best efforts, his wariness and defensive skills will see him engage only in effective rather than reckless aggression, and Alvarez will win with his skillful combinations and defense. effective. .
