Canelo Alvarez and Gennadiy Golovkin will square off for the third time on Saturday, September 17, in what is likely, but not entirely certain, to be the last time the two great rivals meet in the ring.
Can Canelo (57-2-2, 39 KO) fend off Golovkin (42-1-1, 37 KO) and retain his undisputed super middleweight crown, avoiding a second straight loss in 2022? Or will GGG, 40, come up with something big and surprise many observers, like Juan Manuel Marquez did in his fourth fight with Manny Pacquiao in 2012?
We have our picks.
GGG is 40 years old now, which is not a point in his favor. He’s gaining weight, which continues to baffle me about people making such a big deal out of it, honestly; I’m not saying we should require fighters to move up in weight, but GGG never budging from his “original” pro fight weight for 16 years is really unusual in the modern age. And I think it would be best if he didn’t lose that extra weight in the final preparations.
(Besides, no one forced him. He could have continued to fight at 160. It just wasn’t going to be against Canelo, who hasn’t fought at 160 in over three years. He wanted Canelo. Canelo fights at 168 or 175 now.)
In terms of style, skill, I think they are still very well matched. Canelo isn’t infallible and the hardest times he’s had have always been with fighters who have really solid boxing foundations for their game: Mayweather, Lara, Cotto, GGG, Kovalev, Saunders, Bivol. Those fights span four divisions, 154 to 175, various eras of Canelo’s career and various stages of those opponents’ careers, and neither style is exactly the same.
When you look at where Canelo has had his toughest nights (losses or actual competitive fights or debatable/questionable decision wins) that’s the common thread. None of those guys were easily outmatched by Canelo, which is where Canelo builds momentum with his offense. He neutralizes first, then goes for damage. Yes, he stopped Kovalev and Saunders, but they both won rounds and gave Canelo trouble.
I’m a little worried about GGG starting off slow, especially when you think about the cards, but that could be the play here, particularly if Canelo comes out as aggressive as he talks before the fight.
And I think we will see some abnormal emotion in the ring from Canelo from the jump. Yes, this is a great opportunity for GGG to get a win over a guy he thinks he’s hit twice and been cheated on, but it’s also a great night for Canelo. He is trying to avoid a second loss in a row and put a seal on this rivalry.
I’ve said it many times, but even before his spring fights, he wasn’t as down on this matchup in 2022 as a lot of people. And I think it’s going to be good entertainment at a high level. The smart money is in Canelo, and that’s where I’m going too. But can GGG win this? Yes, I think he can. Cinnamon UD-12
Once upon a time I wrote about the genius of Golden Boy promoter Oscar De La Hoya telling the whole world that Canelo wasn’t a “real middleweight” which was the reason he got in the way of Golovkin’s first fight. over a period of time. So it seemed to me that the time Canelo was given was enough to let Golovkin age and let some more wear and tear settle in. Fast-forward several years and a couple of meetings later, and I’m having a hard time seeing the advantages for Golovkin here.
Yes, many people believe that Golovkin deserved the decision in the first fight. But I myself found it ironic that in the rematch, Team Golovkin spent a lot of energy calling Canelo a runner and daring him to stand with Golovkin. Canelo ended up doing exactly that and it seemed to me that it was Golovkin, who got what he asked for, who was more inclined to lean back a bit more in the box. Now, we have a third iteration of very close competition, but the thing here is that I think Canelo is still at his best, while I think Golovkin’s age is catching up with him.
Perhaps the added weight will benefit Golovkin more than I personally anticipate, but I think Canelo is motivated enough to put in a strong performance here as he looks to wrap up this trilogy in clear fashion. If Golovkin has a weakness, it’s the body, and Canelo does pretty well with that kind of thing. I’m going to take Canelo to win a late stoppage this time. Cinnamon TKO-11
I have never seen Gennadiy Golovkin lose a fight with Canelo Alvarez before. Damn age and punters, I won’t sell the old man this time either. Golovkin SD-12
I can’t even overstate how much I want to see GGG do a Marquez on Saturday night. Seeing him, at 40, fell resoundingly to the man who waited until Golovkin looked deadly to challenge him and still only managed to – in quotes – stress that “beating” him would make my year.
God, I can even imagine it. Early-mid round five, maybe a minute later. Canelo led four-nil with near finishes in the first and second thanks to another icy start from Golovkin. Maybe you could give Golovkin fourth, or maybe you’re kidding yourself because he didn’t lose as much as the first few. The announcers, aware that they have to keep people interested in a one-sided fight, exaggerate Golovkin’s durability and relentlessly emphasize that he just needs one good shot to turn things around. The kind of thing you say when aging thugs are hopelessly outmatched to try to convince onlookers that maybe, just maybe, the man who raises him will manage to walk right in front of the howitzer whose wheels fell off years ago.
The sound of a soft medicine ball being dropped onto a hardwood floor from a height of eight or ten feet. It’s a vintage 1910s body shot, the kind that turned Matthew Macklin’s guts into an expressionist painting. Just below Canelo’s right elbow, and through the visual mix of fur, glove and too-high waist, it’s hard to tell how clean he is. Canelo backs up, restarts, and suddenly his torso is made of lead. One knee drops as the announcers, three syllables into something in the general vein of “GGG good bodybuilding,” probe his lungs for the appropriate volume. Canelo puts everything he has into trying to get up, because toughness has never been among his many faults, but the other knee hits the mat like he never intended to leave.
Gennadiy Gennadyevich Golovkin, wearing the infectious smile of a bright-eyed young man left alone in an arcade with a crisp $50 bill, is the undisputed super middleweight champion of the world.
It’s a good thought. Cinnamon UD-12
Jesse Rodriguez vs. Israel Gonzalez
Scott: Rodriguez UD-12 Wil: Rodriguez TKO-5 John: Rodriguez TKO-10 Patrick: Rodriguez UD-12
Ali Akhmedov vs. Gabriel Rosado
Scott: Akhmedov TKO-7 Wil: Akhmedov UD-10 John: Akhmedov UD-10 Patrick: Akhmedov UD-10
Austin Williams vs. Kieron Conway
Scott: Williams TKO-6 Wil: Williams TKO-7 John: Williams TKO-5 Patrick: Williams TKO-7
