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After two convincing fights, it’s hard to say a third fight isn’t needed. But there are many asking this week if we require Saturday’s trilogy fight between Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin.
They meet at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas with Canelo as the favorite.
They shared a draw in their first fight in 2017, in which most felt Golovkin won, and Canelo outboxed him in the 2018 rematch.
There are some who felt going into the opening fight that GGG, then 35 years old, had shown us his best work. By the time of the return fight, Canelo had either figured out Golovkin a bit more, or the Kazakh had backed off a bit. Maybe it was a combination of the two. They aren’t what they were either, but Canelo is eight years younger.
Golovkin is now 40 years old and has only had one fight in the past two years, defeating Ryota Murata at middleweight in April.
The consensus is that Golovkin fades without washing. On the other hand, there is a theory that Canelo is great, but now not as great as he was.
That doesn’t mean there won’t be fireworks. The weight should suit Canelo more this time. He’s down from 175 pounds and has previously been flawless at 168.
Golovkin isn’t at an age where his body is miraculously plumping up, it just means his court, such as it is, won’t be as brutal.
Both fighters are offensive bullies and one can see this turn into something of a shootout in the middle rounds. Álvarez is bigger and cooler. That spells trouble for Triple G, but at the same time Golovkin is so good and so experienced that if he switched to any kind of survival mode he would be a very difficult man to stop. The problem is that Golovkin’s pride means he might as well not have a survival mode on him, particularly in a fight as personal as this one. You can’t see him choosing to do anything other than try to win, and that could lead to real danger if he’s throwing big punches, the kind of punches he was able to get through without flinching in his previous two fights.
Golovkin is the sentimental favorite because he has been so tough on the cards in fights one and two with Canelo. Almost everyone in the boxing stratosphere thought Golovkin was a worthy winner in the first fight, and there were many who thought he was worth at least a draw in the second. For most, the series is 1-1. Actually, it’s 0-2. But the playing field is not as level as it was five years ago because Golovkin is much older and probably wouldn’t be 168 if it wasn’t for Canelo and this incredible payday, this personal grudge and the opportunity for him to address perceived injustice. to fight one at least.
And while neither is what it was, this is nothing like a Roberto Duran-Sugar Ray Leonard III cash grab when they swapped their names and not their skills from a decade earlier. Canelo and GGG could have backed off, but they would still beat most fighters weighing 160 and 168.
These are still two modern A-list stars and future Hall of Famers, Canelo for his achievements through the weights, despite the tainted steak issues, and his brilliant resume, and Golovkin for his longevity, impact and title defense.
But they will arrive at Canastota probably because of what they have done instead of what they will do from now on.
Golovkin has moments of greatness left. He was impressive in places against Murata, but I don’t think he has a solid 12 big rounds left. Not at 40. Not against Canelo and not with his mileage.
Canelo has a history of discovering fighters as a fight progresses. Billy Joe Saunders might have given him something to think about, but he soon walked into a trap and Canelo struck. And the English traveler wasn’t the only one where Canelo took a good look at what was in front of him, decided on his best course of action, and then put a stop to things. In fact, he was better at the end of the first fight with Golovkin than he was at the beginning as well.
The Mexican not only had 24 rounds of investigation for Golovkin, but it is likely that as the trilogy fight progresses, he will figure out exactly what Golovkin has left, and even more so, what he doesn’t.
Canelo’s team will want the big fights moving forward, with the likes of Artur Beterbiev and David Benevidez and perhaps even a rematch with conqueror Dmitriy Bivol, while Golovkin hopes to keep his career alive or even sign one last act of revenge.
The hope is that Canelo moves back a year or two and Golovkin moves back five or six, while getting comfortable at the new weight, and they deliver another classic. If they produce the goods, then their feud will be called one of the best trilogies ever, but the odds, this time, are against Golovkin and for good reason. If you opt for a defensive approach instead of stubbornly fighting to win as the fight goes on, you might hear the final bell. But the freshness, the body attack and the desire to show that Canelo has a lot left could well see him win inside the distance.
