Expect fireworks this weekend as the 2024 boxing slate gets underway.
Hard-hitting, undefeated and unified light heavyweight champion Artur Beterbiev welcomes Callum Smith’s challenge to Quebec City and the Brit will look to shatter Beterbiev’s 19-0 record which includes 19 knockout wins.
The card features everyone’s favorite (or second favorite) Aussie twin, Jason Moloney, and the return of Christian Mbilli to make a splash at 168.
Let’s see where the value can be found:
A better biev?
Callum Smith is arguably the best opponent at 175 pounds that could have been offered to Artur Beterbiev, if we are to ignore the elephant in the room of the Dmitry Bivol saga: “they will they, they won’t they.”
So it’s quite humiliating for the Brit to open up as a 16/5 underdog on Saturday night as he attempts to steal the unified light heavyweight titles from the unbeaten favourite.
Beterbiev has 19 wins and 19 KOs as a professional, and at 2/9 to win the fight and 4/9 to secure another knockout, it’s hard to get too much value out of the 38-year-old.
It’s difficult to pinpoint the best win of Smith’s career and, despite looking quite natural as a 175 fighter, facing Beterbiev is levels above what he has fought so far at the weight.
He stayed out of relative danger against Canelo in the only loss of his career, but never seemed to win it; He will be reluctant to make the same mistakes by not initiating attacks this weekend, which opens up the late victory for Beterbiev when Smith decides to break cover.
A win in Rounds 10-12 for Beterbiev weighs in at 3/1 and is probably the pick of the weekend, with Rounds 7-12 a relative safety net at 11/10.
Beterbiev loves to engage, which makes him an exciting fighter – if you fancy Callum Smith following in the footsteps of Jeff Page Jr. and Callum Johnson, then 7/1 says Beterbiev gets knocked down but wins the fight.
Tough defense for Moloney
Good things happen to good people, and Jason Moloney, who won a world title for the third time last year, can certainly document himself in that category.
But the Australian will have his work cut out against a tough, durable and competitive Saul Sanchez this weekend, and immediately 5/2 for the underdog looks like a great price.
Moloney is priced at 5/17 FAV in this primary support for Beterbiev-Smith, but backing the champion by decision at 5/6 is where the value is best.
Sure, Sanchez still has to go 12 rounds as a pro, but the 26-year-old doesn’t feel like the type of fighter who’s going to weaken under the pressure of this time around.
Moloney is the better technical fighter and an unwillingness to engage in a shootout down the stretch will likely make Moloney’s chances of a KO go down the longer the fight goes on.
Sanchez is not a hard fighter to find: his lack of head movement off the line opens up the possibility of getting a 9/4 bet that Moloney can land over 200 punches in the fight.
Early evening for Mbilli
If he intends to back up an early explosion this weekend, then this could potentially be in the hands/gloves of Christian Mbilli.
The rising super middleweight is a heavy 1/14 favorite to beat Rohan Murdock, with the Australian priced at 15/2.
Murdock is expected to be out of his depth here, with Mbilli’s aggressive nature well suited to an early KO.
We’re looking at Rounds 1-3 at 11/2 for the 28-year-old, adding to the 13 he’s already recorded as a professional.
