I tell you this every year… but if you’ve reached this point and you’re not happy, too bad.
You should have foreseen it.
In keeping with tradition in this space, we greet the New Year with a preview of the stories that other boxing scribes will react to in about 12 months.
Of course, if you remember from last week’s article, 2023 was a ghostly forecast year… if you don’t forget.
But hope springs eternal, so in the recurring quest to match the glory of a wise choice of unknown Andre Ward as 2011 Fighter of the Year, let’s try again 13 years later.
Unlike football, baseball or the like, there are no master calendars from which to draw events to predict. And even if I were prescient enough to know now which fights would take place between which guys, say, next October, there’s always the chance that three people sitting on the perimeter of the ring will blow my forecast to shreds with their definition of what constitutes a “boxing lesson.”
But those are excuses and complaints for another day.
Today is a day to think about the future, and with that, here’s a sneak peek at what everyone will remember as they take down the tree after Christmas 2024.
And hey, if some of these things really happen… it’ll be a good year for all of us.
ANNOYANCE OF THE YEAR: Callum Smith SD 12 Artur Beterbiev
It’s simple, Artur Beterbiev is a Russian-born, Canada-based threat.
He appeals to the chilling violence-seeker in every boxing fan with a 100 percent KO rate and the fact that he often wears a scowl under his beard does nothing to kill the vibe.
He’s working his way toward a four-belt unification fight with fellow 175-pound title challenger Dmitry Bivol in one of the most anticipated bouts of 2024, but here he says it might not happen.
Meanwhile, the 38-year-old has a date on January 13 with former super middleweight champion Callum Smith, and is shaping up to define his career in disappointing fashion.
Smith is taller, longer, younger and looks dangerous since jumping from 168 pounds. And while Beterbiev is much better than anyone Smith has met in his new class, he didn’t look as dominant in his most recent fight: an eighth-round finish against twice-beaten British contender Anthony Yarde.
If Yarde can push him, Smith will take him down.
Sorry Dmitri.
KNOKOUT OF THE YEAR: Filip Hrgovic KO 3 Anthony Joshua
Speaking of guys with threat in the Major Leagues, we present “The Animal.”
Filip Hrgovic, a 31-year-old Croatian export, has knocked out 14 of 17 opponents and looked particularly dangerous in defeating veteran test horse Mark De Mori on the “Day of Reckoning” undercard in Saudi Arabia.
That win presumably propelled him into what will likely end up as a shot at a vacant IBF title because the organization is likely to strip the winner of the Tyson Fury-Oleksandr Usyk fight if the rivals go ahead with what is expected to be an immediate revenge. .
Elsewhere on that card in Riyadh, Anthony Joshua staked his claim to a high-profile fight by defeating Otto Wallin, and promoter Eddie Hearn suggested it would be Joshua and Hrgovic who would end up meeting in what Eddie hoped would be the fight. her man. get a third title reign.
But that won’t happen.
While he looked pretty good handling a passive Wallin, it won’t be as easy against a bigger, stronger, angrier foe (than Wallin), and it’s precisely the kind of aggression that will trigger any doubts Joshua still has from his three losses. In five fights they extend from 2019 to 2022.
Left, right, left… and we got a memorable KO (and a pretty good surprise).
FIGHT OF THE YEAR: Canelo Álvarez KO 11 David Benavidez
Let’s be honest. I don’t even care if Alvarez wins or loses.
If this fight takes place in 2024, we will all win.
But when I think about it, I see a classic that defines the year.
Benavidez is a tall, powerful man with a motor that doesn’t stop. Alvarez is a sublimely skilled operator who can take down an opponent with his boxing skills or pummel him with hard-hitting body shots.
Add a little Mexican angst and you have all the necessary ingredients.
Benavidez, fueled by the adrenaline of finally landing the big fish, comes out fast. He wins the first rounds with superior activity and gives Canelo problems with his size and work rate. In the end, Alvarez weathers the storm and begins landing impactful blows and winning rounds.
It’s Leonard-Hearns stuff down the stretch and Eddy Reynoso plays the role of Angelo Dundee, exhorting his man to stop the comeback in the penultimate round.
FIGHTER OF THE YEAR: Tyson Fury
It is never an easy choice. The title champions defend and unify titles. Excited prospects deliver on championship-level promise. And legitimate superstars maintain their status at the top of the sport.
But when a man begins a year in one place and ends in another, particularly as regards the historical position of all time, he separates himself from the rest. That will be the case for Fury in 2024.
The loquacious Englishman is already among the most dominant big men in the history of the sport, and he has been nearly unbeatable in the second act of his career, leaping off the platform to defeat a trilogy rival in Deontay Wilder and banging a drum not competitive against another like Derek. Chisora.
A fight with Oleksandr Usyk provides an undisputed opportunity that Fury has never had and the expectation here is that it will be a much more one-sided affair than many suggest, with the ‘Gypsy King’ forcing his smaller foe out for around 10 rounds. until there is simply no reason to continue.
That alone would be worth at least a middling FOTY consideration, but we’ll roll the dice here and suggest that Fury end his year with an even quicker finish in the rematch or, if Joshua manages to stay relevant in the second fight of the year. half, by defeating his rival in an all-England confrontation.
Like Fury-Usyk, it’s a fight that many want to see, but it only provides a fleeting opportunity to surprise. Joshua is a hard puncher, but he’s not as powerful as Wilder and won’t have enough material to prevent a motivated champion from beating him to a pulp in front of 90,000 fans.
Two mega events. Two dominant KOs. And Fury rides into the sunset of the WWE/UFC crossover.
This week’s title fight schedule:
No title fights scheduled
Last week’s picks: 1-0 (WIN: Inoue)
2023 selection record: 45-17 (72.5 percent)
Overall selection record: 1,296-425 (75.3 percent)
NOTE: Previous fights are only those involving the full title holder of a sanctioning body; There are no interim fights, diamond fights, silver fights, etc. WBA “world championship” fights are only included if there is no “super champion” in the weight class.
Lyle Fitzsimmons has covered professional boxing since 1995 and has written a weekly column for Boxing Scene since 2008. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter: @fitzbitz.
