With Liverpool officially halfway through their Premier League fixture schedule, we take a look at how this campaign compares to last and Jurgen Klopp’s best.
You don’t need complicated statistics to know that Liverpool have improved compared to last season. The Reds scored more, conceded less and won more games; Football can sometimes be that simple.
In the league, Liverpool’s five more goals, nine fewer conceded and 13 more points mean the Reds have jumped from ninth place after 19 games to first.
Of course, football is not linear, but if you were to double Liverpool’s statistics to predict what the Reds’ final total would be, they would probably fall short of the title.
Projected points
Liverpool are expected to score 78 league goals, concede 32 and accumulate 84 points. Compared to the Reds’ totals last season, by the end of the campaign, they would have scored three more goals, conceded 15 fewer and finished 17 points better.
Obviously, that’s not how life works, and it’s highly unlikely Liverpool will end up with the same record, but it’s interesting to see how those projected final totals compare to other teams’ previous years.
For example, although Liverpool now sit top of the table, the potential total of 84 points would only be enough to finish second last season, five points behind Man City.
To find the last team to win the league with 84 points or less, you have to go back to Leicester in 2016 (81). Before Leicester, it was 2011, when Man United won with just 80 on the board.
Improve your game
Basically, all of this means that Liverpool need to improve their game even more if they want to win the Premier League this season.
Over the last two seasons, this is something Klopp’s men have managed to do. Last season, the Reds earned nine more points in the second half of the season than they did in the first, and the year before that it was four more points.
In the graph below, you can see how Klopp’s team has improved as the season has progressed over the previous five campaigns.
Unless injuries get in the way, that may happen again, but to what extent will determine where the Premier League trophy ends up in May.
Of course, the ability of other teams plays the second biggest factor in all of this. Man City could still have an incredible run, as could Arsenal.
In fact, Liverpool managed 51 points in the first half of 2018/19 and still finished second. With 44 points, the same thing happened in 2021/22, when they lost the title again to Pep Guardiola’s team.
If City drop three points in their remaining game, although unlikely, it would mean that they are statistically unlikely to win the league.
And according to Opta, Guardiola’s team are, incredibly, just two points worse than at this stage last season.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have had the third best recovery in the division with 13 points, but it is West Ham (18) and Aston Villa (14) who lead the way when comparing the first 19 games of this season with the same stage in 2022 . /2. 3.
Comparing Klopp
Burnley manager Vincent Kompany recently said: “In terms of intensity, they (Liverpool) are getting back to the levels I knew when I faced them as a player.”
While they are clearly not there yet, depending on the form of other teams, that incredible level may not be necessary this season.
The Reds are only two points less than in 2021/22, when they almost won a historic quadruple.
In the second half of that campaign, Thiago came to the fore and a January signing, Luis Díaz, boosted the attack to inspire the best second half of a season produced under Klopp.
With Thiago potentially returning from injury in 2024, along with Andy Robertson, fans will be hoping the Reds hit the ground running despite Mo Salah and Wataru Endo set to begin international duty in January.
