After the matchup between Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga College Gameday last Saturday, the West Coast Conference tournament begins Thursday. While they were tied for first in the regular season conference, Saint Mary’s earned the sole seed due to a higher NET ranking tiebreaker. While both had lost their way to each other, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s share a common loss: Loyola Marymount Lions. Santa Clara and LMU make up the third and fourth seeds, respectively, and will receive a double bye, while Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga earn a free trip to the semifinals.
Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga will receive general offers, regardless of winning the WCC tournament. Thus, the West Coast Conference can be a three-bid conference if Santa Clara or Loyola Marymount win the championship.
The Favourite: Gonzaga -145
As we get closer to March Madness, the usual hollow cries of “overrated” and “playing in a real conference” will appear. And year after year, Gonzaga wins in March. However, the Zags’ offense has been in turmoil of late, being recognized as the most efficient offense in the nation. Coach Mark Few has this team trending at the right time. Drew Timme remains one of the top offensive talents in the country, and as usual, the Zags’ offense remains elite in transition. Unfortunately, even though the offense maintained the form it’s had in recent years, the defense took a big step back. Timme is not a defensively capable threat on the inside. While Anton Watson is a heavy-hitting defender, there are often too many weak links on defense.
Contenders: Saint Mary’s +105
Randy Bennett arguably has his best Saint Mary team this season, thanks to the elite defense they’ve played. Anchored by their elite interior defense, the Gaels won the WCC regular season title via NET rankings tiebreaker. As a result, most analytical rankings consider them a better team than Gonzaga. Offensively, Aidan Mahaney is capable of fireworks that few guards in the conference can match, as evidenced by his performance late in their win against the Zags. However, he has had his share of inconsistency throughout the season. Offensively, they have relied on 3-point shooting and offensive rebounding to spread possessions and build offense. If they get a peak performance from Mahaney, the Gaels will be tough until the end of the year.
Someone else?
Sure, someone could make an argument supporting Santa Clara, San Francisco, BYU, or Loyola Marymount, but frankly, you won’t find that here. All of these teams have talent, training and scheme disadvantages that I see too much to overcome in tournaments.
Best Bet: Saint Mary’s +105
As a Gonzaga grad, this pains me, but these odds should be closer to an implied 50/50 than currently lines up. While the recent game suggests Gonzaga should be favored, it was a favorable stretch of the schedule, especially with how rowdy the crowd was at the Kennel to end the season.
