The MLB season is right around the corner, and baseball is already making headlines with its rule changes and adjustments to the game. But 2023 promises to be an entertaining season after all the offseason fireworks and player movement, and we’ll see plenty of home runs, as we have in recent years.
The numbers at long ball dipped slightly in 2022 as “just” 5,215 home runs were hit compared to 5,940 the year before. But there were some impressive individual stats and chases last year, most notably Aaron Judge and his AL record 62 home run count. Kyle Schwarber hit 46 for the Phillies and Mike Trout had an impressive 40 despite playing in just 119 games.
Aaron Judge Slightly Favorite to be MLB Home Run Leader
So who’s on the list to lead the league in home runs in 2023? There is no absolute favourite, but some of the most recognizable names are at the top.
Judge remains the outright leader and the technical favourite, reaching +600 to be the leader. He had a bout with free agency in the offseason, but decided to return to the Yankees and their hitter-friendly ballpark, which helped him stay at the top of the odds list. If he had gone somewhere like San Francisco, where home runs are harder to come by, the odds on him might have been a little different.
Behind him is Trout, who probably would have had the second most home runs had he been able to stay healthy. But he’s dealt with injuries the past three years that have kept his numbers down, but he still has the ability to be one of the league leaders in the category. His number is +800.
Power hitter Pete Alonso (+900) is in the top 3 as he was one of four players to hit 40+ home runs last season. One of the best for value could be Yordan Alvarez, who hit 37 home runs in 2022 despite taking nearly 130 fewer at-bats than Alonso. His number is +1000.
At-bat counts and injuries will always play a role in home run totals. Speaking of which, Fernando Tatis Jr. rounds out the top 5 favorites to lead the league in home runs, with a +1000 designation. He has missed significant time in the recent past and will also begin the season serving the last 21 games of a suspension.
The season will officially kick off during the last days of March, but bettors will be keeping an eye on the home run totals as we get closer to the month of September.
