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With West Ham United set to listen to offers for Declan Rice this summer, it is naturally presumed that Manchester United are one of the leading suitors for his signing.
The club have been constantly linked to the central midfielder over the past few years, and his previously astronomical price tag put them off making a potential offer.
However, the expiration date of Rice’s contract is now fast approaching. The Englishman’s contract at West Ham expires in June 2024 (although with a one-year extension option). This summer is therefore the perfect opportunity for United to reach an agreement.
Should United be involved in transfer talks for Rice? Should he become a priority signing in midfield? And will Erik ten Hag want him on his team?
United’s precarious and indefinite ownership situation makes the future transfer discussion difficult to navigate. Whether or not United will be involved in talks for any high-profile players is completely unknown; the new majority owners could be just another investor-shy company, like Glazer, or happy spenders like Todd Boehly.
Chances are that whichever owner comes in will want to make a splash on the transfer market. But as we’ve seen recently at Newcastle United, there are clever ways to announce his presence as a new money man in town.
Rice is English, young with vast Premier League experience and highly regarded among top teams. The price of him will not be cheap, regardless of the length of his contract.
West Ham will go to great lengths to create a saga and raise their price as they pit the suitors against each other. Chelsea, Arsenal and United are already considered candidates and will inevitably be caught up in the media storm.
Do United’s new owners need this arduous activity in their first window as leaders of the world’s biggest club? No. For every 100 million euros of Declan Rice, there is a Bruno Guimarães of 50 million euros; for every 50 million euros of Fred, there is a free agent Christian Eriksen. Shrewd and stable businesses ultimately prevail in the short and long term.
United had attempted to transition to this type of strategy last summer under new chief executive Richard Arnold and with director of football John Murtough working in tandem with manager Erik ten Hag. However, the lack of a clear immediate direction led to a confused and incoherent move: see Antony’s final €100m cost.
If United strive to implement a structured and intelligent approach to the transfer market, then convoluted strategies must be quashed. Unless, of course, a featured player, who is also the “right player”, who has been beefed up by Ten Hag as his only priority when selecting targets, is available. Rice will be available, and he will inevitably be a featured player as well due to his nationality and media hype, but would he be the right player? Would it be worth paying over the odds and getting caught up in a saga?
Ten Hag needs players who can play football in both defensive and offensive half for Total Football to come to fruition. That means the days of chasing a “destroyer” in midfield, which fans have longed for, are over. a no. 6 has to be a destroyer and a playmaker simultaneously to play Ten Hag.
That’s why Casemiro has thrived at United. Many are surprised by the spectacular pass from the Brazilian and, in the words of Ten Hag, the verticality. Combined with his superlative defensive capabilities, Casemiro has undoubtedly been the best midfielder in the Premier League, thriving within Ten Hag’s system and ideals.
At 30 years old, Casemiro still has a few years left in his prime in the tank (hopefully/hopefully). Paying 100 million euros for coverage is therefore quite wasteful.
That’s a lot of games in a season, but strategically resting Casemiro in the coming years could serve to create a new Casemiro.
That’s not to say ‘We should play 17-year-old Kobbie Mainoo in half the games!’ – well, actually, why not? Ten Hag has a history of trusting young players and developing them into reliable, high-quality first-team players. Mainoo could be next in line for this process.
West Ham had to give Rice playing time before he became an elite Premier League midfielder. Casemiro had to be given game time at Real Madrid to become the best defensive midfielder in the world. Rushing into a massive signing limits not only Casemiro’s role in the team, but also the role of future talent.
A bit naive? Definitely. But perhaps part of United’s strategy. By next season, Mainoo will have spent a year learning from Ten Hag, absorbing his philosophy, instilling specific tactics and style of play in his mind, and the benefit of introducing talented youngsters into the first team is that Mainoo will only have fed off the guardianship of Ten Hag; not from multiple senior managers and coaches.
Introducing Mainoo as a first-team starter is not the answer to “should United buy Rice?” but simply a symbol in the equation.
As Ten Hag has shown throughout his career, and already at United, he is not afraid to give priority to homegrown players over older ones; see the rise of Alejandro Garnacho. However, Mainoo, at 17 years old, must be allowed to work his way up to gradually become a valued member of the team. If United decide not to invest in a top-quality midfielder this summer, Mainoo’s development will also be hampered by the rush; see Anthony Elanga as a case study in the negative side effects of this.
United need to strengthen their midfield depth; there are no two ways around this. Scott McTominay, Fred and Donny van de Beek all exceed the requirements and United must be relentless with this reality if they are to become a true challenger on multiple fronts.
Venturing into Europe and unearthing real gems or recruiting top young talent from clubs in the lower half of the Premier League was Sir Alex Ferguson and David Gill’s Modus Operandi for two decades.
And Declan Rice is a great talent; there can be no debate about that.
The 24-year-old is a dynamic central midfielder par excellence – defending, passing and moving.
He is averaging almost two interceptions per 90 minutes, which puts him in the elite category compared to other central midfielders across Europe.
A remarkable 89% pass completion rate has earned him praise. Some may think that this figure is combined with passes backwards or to the side, but Rice is one of the most progressive passers in the European leagues: he lunges forward on seven passes into the final third per game.
Although he mainly operates around the center circle, his cool and fearless nature on the ball would appeal to Ten Hag, as he averages more than two carries into the opposition box each game.
These undeniably commendable stats coupled with Rice’s age and vast Premier League experience make him an ideal profile to be introduced into United’s weak midfield squad.
What is cause for concern is that his only experience is playing for West Ham, a team that does not play expansive, possession-based football, with David Moyes preferring a tough and disciplined approach.
With Ten Hag and the coaching pedigree of his staff already paying dividends in reviving the careers of several United players, perhaps this shouldn’t be a cause for concern, but rather a point to consider when immediately judging Rice in the event of to be bought this summer.
Another potential problem is its price. United will undoubtedly be focused on signing a world-class striker this summer with Harry Kane, Victor Osimhen and Dusan Vlahovic as shortlisted targets.
Will there be enough money in the bank to buy two transfers worth more than 100 million euros? The precarious and unknown future situation of the property prevents this from being discussed.
While it might sound akin to Woodward’s cash splattering whatever shiny object he found as the flavor of the month, these astronomical prices are becoming the norm for mid-tier players, let alone world-class stars.
If United want to compete on all fronts, competing for cup trophies, the Premier League and the Champions League, then they need a lot of muscle. Not just strength: world-class strength in depth.
Rice could be the perfect high-quality addition to a team clamoring for midfield supplementation; but the main question, ownership aside, is will Ten Hag give up his obsession with Frenkie de Jong?
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