Parity in football is not exactly commonplace. Some leagues have it, others have less. However, it is part of the excitement in every league.
In fact, the lack of a competitive nature makes those crash streaks at European titles or places that much more exciting. A team challenging Bayern Munich for the Bundesliga, while rare, is exciting for the German top flight. LOSC Lille stunned PSG in 2020/21 to win Ligue Un on the final day brought much-needed attention to French club football.
At the same time, it can provide an inside look at why some leagues are so popular. The Premier League is the most popular European league in the United States for several reasons. Among them is the unpredictable nature of the league. Serie A is experiencing a renaissance, and part of that comes from the interruption of the Juventus hegemony that dominated in the 2010s.
In recent years, some leagues are more predictable than others in Europe. Here are some of those ranked leagues.
The most predictable soccer leagues in Europe
1 – Bundesliga – A winner in 10 years
In the 2021/22 season, Bayern Munich won another Meisterschale. That, as well as being a record 32nd title number, was the club’s 10th successive league win. Since the 2008/09 Bundesliga season in which Wolfsburg finished top of the table, Bayern Munich have won 11 of the titles. The only other two in that span were for their biggest rival, Borussia Dortmund.
That is what makes the Bundesliga so predictable. You know that Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund will finish at the top of the table. Dortmund is much less consistent, to be fair. Still, since their back-to-back wins in 2010/11 and 2011/12, Dortmund have only one finish outside the top four. That was in 2014/15, the last year under the leadership of Jürgen Klopp.
Now entering the fray in recent years is RB Leipzig. Entering the Bundesliga for the first time in 2016/17, Die Roten Bullen caused a sensation with a second-place finish. Including that season, Leipzig has six seasons in the top flight. He finished sixth in his second season. However, excluding that ‘outlier’, Leipzig have a couple of second places, two third places and one fourth place.
He could sign up for a few other teams to round out the top four in the last decade or so. Bayer Leverkusen, Wolfsburg, Borussia Mönchengladbach or Eintracht Frankfurt flirted with that area. For Dortmund to sit in fifth place and Bayern to have a three-point lead around the middle of the campaign is an amazing feat.
2 – Ligue Un – Three winners in 10 years
While Bayern Munich have won every single Bundesliga title after the 2011/12 campaign, Paris St. Germain are on a comparable run of success. However, despite Ligue Un being of somewhat lower quality than the Bundesliga as a whole, PSG have ‘only’ eight titles in that ten-year span.
Monaco won the title with their superbly talented team of Bernardo Silva, Fabinho, Thomas Lemar, Radamel Falcao and one Kylian Mbappé in 2016/17. Then in 2020/21, the aforementioned Lille shocked the odds to finish top of Ligue Un.
What makes Ligue Un so predictable among European soccer leagues is the talent gap between the top teams. PSG are in a class of their own, not a huge surprise with Mbappé, Neymar and Lionel Messi leading the line. Even the clubs that compete for the other top four places, clubs like Lyon, Marseille, Monaco or Lille, have recognizable names. They often lose those names to the best European clubs, including PSG.
3 – LaLiga – Three winners in 10 years
LaLiga is a fairly competitive league. That’s true of the top three, that is. Atlético de Madrid, Barcelona and Real Madrid are the big favorites to win all the LaLiga crowns.
The last time a team other than Barcelona, Real Madrid or Atlético won La Liga was in 2003/04, when Valencia lifted their sixth trophy. That balance of divided hegemony places LaLiga in the middle of the most predictable leagues in Europe.
In the history of Spanish football, only nine teams have won the top division. That speaks of the dominance of Barcelona and Real Madrid, combining for 61 of 91 titles.
So if there is such a clear gap between these three teams and the rest, it should be level with the Bundesliga or Ligue One. Well, LaLiga at least has a title challenge every season. From the 2013/14 season onwards, Atlético de Madrid has won two titles, Real Madrid three and Barcelona four. It’s consistent among the top teams, but it’s still a challenge.
Then, adding that fourth-place team, Sevilla is as safe as possible to complete a top four. Sevilla have four fourth-place finishes in that span, even if the club is struggling hard in the 2022/23 campaign.
4 – Serie A – Three winners in 10 years
If you had asked which European league is the most predictable three years ago, Serie A would make a serious case to top that list. However, the Italian top flight is experiencing a renaissance in terms of parity.
Juventus, who won all the Scudettos from 2011/12 to 2019/20, went through a rough patch. Instead, Inter Milan and Milan won a Serie A title. In the 2022/23 campaign, the chain of changes seems to be extended. Napoli have a comfortable lead in the title race at the halfway point of the season.
Part of what makes Serie A unpredictable, at least in comparison to the aforementioned three leagues, is how teams come and go. Atalanta have emerged in recent campaigns as a fan favorite in contention for Champions League places. Roma were a bit disappointed when Juventus collapsed. After several top-four finishes, he was unable to return to that level after the 2017/18 campaign.
Still, there is hope for every team that is in the elite. Inter, Milan, Juventus, Napoli, Roma and Lazio. All competitors, and that shows in the latest editions of the leaderboards.
5 – Premier League – Five winners in 10 years
Seeing five different clubs win the Premier League in a span of 10 years may surprise some people. After all, Manchester City have half the Premier League crowns in that span. To a large extent, he added the one from 11 years ago. In many ways, Manchester City winning the title has become the norm in England. The first and only centurions in Premier League history have an era of dominance under Pep Guardiola.
Still, looking back over the past decade, Liverpool, Chelsea and even Manchester United have all won the title. Furthermore, Leicester City clinched the most unpredictable title in the history of any European football league, winning the league after starting as relegation favorites.
So what makes the Premier League stand out the most in terms of unpredictability is the talent at the top. Compare the ‘difficult times’ of Barcelona with those of Manchester United or Arsenal. Barcelona have not won LaLiga for three seasons, that is abhorrent in LaLiga. Arsenal have not won a title since 2003/04. Furthermore, they have not finished in the top four since finishing second to Leicester City in 2015/16. Now, he is the best in the league. Manchester United bounced all over the place over the past decade. A couple of second places, two more top fours, three sixth places. Other teams have also fluctuated in form. Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs, even Leicester City. He went from the battle of promotion to relegation to champions to the top six. Now, he’s back in the bottom half of the table.
The Premier League has more ebbs and flows than any other league, making it the least predictable of Europe’s top five leagues.
How does MLS compare?
MLS – 7 winners in the last 10 years
Taking the top five European leagues and looking at Major League Soccer, there is a case for MLS to be seen as more unpredictable. Please note that this does not overtly improve MLS. Talent is lower across the board. Instead, consider it more balanced.
This looks at the winners of the MLS Supporters’ Shield, which goes to the team with the best record at the end of the regular season. It’s more in line with the way the top five leagues in Europe decide a winner. Seven different teams won the MLS Supporters’ Shield. Interestingly, only two of those teams won the MLS Cup that season. That was Toronto FC in 2017 and LAFC in the most recent season.
Clearly, MLS is less predictable than other leagues. The reasons for this are quite clear. MLS has a salary cap, European leagues don’t. Teams are constantly fighting to stay under the cap. When players ask for raises after good seasons, the money may not always be available.
Players don’t yearn to get to MLS, which weakens some teams and makes it more balanced. For example, Miguel Almiron left Atlanta United after the team won the MLS Cup in 2018. During his tenure in Atlanta, Almiron teamed up with Josef Martinez to dominate the league. He has won a US Open Cup and an MLS Cup, even if he missed out on the Supporters’ Shield. He left (and Martinez dealt with injuries) and the Atlants hasn’t been the same since, breaking down his performances and successes.
PHOTO: IMAGO / Sammy Minkoff
