Going into matchday three of the 2022 World Cup, there are endless group stage scenarios for teams to reach the coveted knockout stage.
In fact, only two teams have no chance of reaching the round of 16. Canada and Qatar are the only teams without a point after two games played. Qatar becomes the second host of a World Cup that does not reach the second phase of the competition. The first was South Africa in 2010. Canada, on the other hand, is still in search of its first World Cup point.
Some countries already have a place in the round of 16 of the World Cup. Brazil and defending champions France were the first two to secure a place in the round of 16. Portugal joined them with a win over Uruguay on Monday.
How can the other 27 teams find out the 13 available spots? This is what every team needs to happen.
How to get to the knockout stage of the World Cup
Group A Ecuador vs Senegal, Netherlands vs Qatar – Tuesday, 10 am ET
The Netherlands and Ecuador have an internal path to reach the next stage. However, the duel between Ecuador and Senegal is particularly interesting. Ecuador ends with a tie or a win. Senegal probably needs a win to advance.
However, the reason the Netherlands are not guaranteed a place is because of potential goal difference issues. If Ecuador and Senegal tie, and the Netherlands lose to Qatar by at least two goals, the next tiebreaker is goals scored. While Qatar looked dismal in their World Cup campaign, they could play the ultimate spoiler with a shock result over the Dutch.
Pool B USA vs. Iran, England vs. Wales – Tuesday, 2 pm ET
The contest between Iran and the United States is one of those ’round of 32′ encounters. While not an official knockout stage game, the Americans must win to advance. A draw or a loss leaves no chance. Iran automatically advances with a win, but even a draw is not necessarily a guarantee.
Wales’ only chance of advancing rests on a draw between the United States and Iran. Then Wales would have to beat England. The resulting three points would put Wales on the same level as Iran. Then, the consequent improvement in the goal differential would reserve a place for him. England can be eliminated in case of defeat. However, it would be necessary for the English to lose by at least six goals, AND Iran and the United States would have to draw.
Group C Argentina vs. Poland, Mexico vs. Saudi Arabia – Wednesday, 2:00 p.m.
This group is just very open. Group leader Poland go through with a win or draw regardless of what happens in the other game. Poland can still get away with a loss, as long as Mexico draws or beats Saudi Arabia. For the latter (POL loss, MEX win), it all comes down to goal difference.
Argentina, which bounced back after a stunning loss to Saudi Arabia by beating Mexico, controls its destiny. A win is a guarantee to advance, a loss is an exit from the tournament. In case of a tie, Argentina can advance if MEX and KSA tie. Or, if Argentina draws, it happens if Mexico wins by one or two goals. A three-goal victory for Mexico in this scenario would bring goals for the third tiebreaker.
Saudi Arabia is in a boat similar to Argentina’s. A victory for Saudi Arabia is a guarantee to advance, a loss means they are out. A draw would require Argentina to lose. This sees Saudi Arabia overtake Argentina on points.
Mexico needs the most help in the group. A draw or a loss and, unsurprisingly, Mexico is eliminated in the group stage for the first time since 1978. Should Mexico win, you have to expect Poland to win or draw in the other game. If Argentina draws with Poland, Mexico must surpass Argentina in the goal differential category. Therefore, that requires a three-goal win or better at least.
Pool D Australia vs Denmark, France vs Tunisia – Wednesday, 10 a.m. ET
France is over. Also, the only way they won’t finish top of the group is if France lose and Australia win. Australia would also have to surpass France in the goal differential category. That means overcoming a margin of 6 goals.
Australia guarantees a place in the knockout stage with a win. However, despite being in second place, Tunisia can overtake the Socceroos in the event of a tie. Tunisia would have to beat France and have a better goal difference margin than Australia to usurp the Australians. Again, that’s only in the case of a tie. With a loss, Australia is out.
Denmark and Tunisia are almost identical in their performances this season. A draw and a single goal loss have each team at one point with a goal differential of -1. Both nations must win to advance. However, tiebreakers take effect. The first is goal differential. Second, and the reason Denmark is currently third, is the goals. After that, the fair play system, which values ​​reserves, plays an important role.
Group E Japan vs Spain, Germany vs Costa Rica – Thursday, 2 pm ET
This is another example of all teams having a chance to qualify for the knockout phase of the World Cup. Spain controls its destiny. A win or draw is enough to advance. In the event of defeat, Spain can still advance as long as their goal differential, currently a tournament-leading +7, doesn’t take a big hit.
Japan won that great first game against Germany, but surprisingly fell to Costa Rica, bringing this group to life. The Samurai Blue have finished with a victory. A loss to Spain disqualifies Japan. A draw might be good enough. However, Japan’s goal differential could come into play as their fate would be in the hands of the Germany-Costa Rica matchup. If Japan draws with Spain, the only way to go through is if the other game also ends in a draw. Or, Germany win by a single goal, and Japan beat the Germans based on goal difference. Of course, Japan advanced to the knockout phase of the 2018 World Cup via the rules of fair play, and that could happen again.
Costa Rica has a situation similar to Japan in three points. However, Costa Rica’s brutal goal differential of -6 makes some of those tiebreaker scenarios harder to overcome. If Costa Rica draws with Germany, it can happen as long as Japan loses to Spain. That being said, a win would certainly be enough for Costa Rica to move forward.
Germany needs help, and a good deal of it. Germany not only have to beat Costa Rica, but they have to wait for Spain to beat Japan, or for the two teams to draw. As said, it is a difficult task to overcome Spain’s goal difference in case Spain loses and Germany wins. Not mathematically impossible, but theoretically quite challenging. The most realistic of the options to advance is if Germany wins and Spain defeats Japan. Or, Germany wins and Spain draws with Japan, but Germany wins enough to pass Japan in the group table based on goal difference.
Croatia’s competition against Belgium is huge, as most predicted they would go into the tournament. Croatia advances with a win or a draw. In fact, you can even advance at a loss. The latter is possible if Canada defeats Morocco.
Morocco secures its place in the next stage with a victory. However, a loss or draw are still potential ways forward. If Croatia beat Belgium, then the result in the Canada-Morocco game is of no importance to the Moroccans. However, if Belgium draw or win, Morocco needs a draw or win of their own, respectively, to advance. Also, if Morocco loses, it can still happen if Belgium defeats Croatia convincingly. That would come down to the goal difference between Croatia and Morocco.
Belgium still has something to say about this group. One victory is enough to advance. A draw may be enough to advance. However, that instance requires that Morocco lose by at least three goals to Canada, a team that has never scored a point in a World Cup match. A loss condemns Belgium to a surprise early exit from the World Cup.
Canada is out. However, they can still clearly play a role in the group standings in their match against Morocco.
Group G Serbia vs. Switzerland, Brazil vs. Cameroon – Friday, 2 p.m. ET
This group is practically identical to Group D. Brazil is in the round of 16 of the World Cup. The only way they won’t finish on top is if they lose and Switzerland win by enough to surpass the Brazilians on goal difference.
For Switzerland, one victory is enough. A draw may be enough, but that would require Brazil to beat Cameroon. Or, at least, Cameroon would have to defeat a Brazil team that has yet to concede a goal in the tournament. A loss eliminates Switzerland from the game.
Cameroon edged Serbia with three, keeping their hopes alive. However, their hopes are based on defeating Brazil and betting on a draw between Serbia and Switzerland or a victory for Serbia. In the case of both, the goal differential would come into play. for Cameroon.
Serbia, like Cameroon, needs a win and some help. A win takes the Serbs over Switzerland in the group. However, if Cameroon beat Brazil and maintain a better goal differential, Serbia will not advance.
Group H Ghana vs. Uruguay, Portugal vs. South Korea – Friday, 10 a.m. ET
This group is strikingly similar to Group G, right down to each team’s goal differential. Portugal advanced after soundly defeating Uruguay with a pair of goals from Bruno Fernandes. Portugal also has the inside track to finish first, provided Ghana doesn’t win by a comfortable margin and Portugal lose.
Ghana can advance with a win, while a loss means an exit from the tournament. If Ghana draws with Uruguay, South Korea loses or draws against Portugal.
In the same way, Uruguay can advance with a victory and a victory or draw for Portugal in the last round. If Uruguay draws or loses, they are eliminated.
The same goes for South Korea. A draw or loss expels the team from the World Cup. However, a victory would force the Koreans to celebrate a victory for Uruguay by one goal or a draw. If Ghana and Uruguay tie, South Korea can advance by beating Portugal by two to increase their goal difference.
World Cup 2022 Guide
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