We are about to get to the World Cup, and many people will now be thinking about betting on the tournament. But what to go? It requires a completely different skill set and thought process than betting on the Premier League.
Betting on EPL matches is notoriously difficult. The league has built its success on competitive balance and unpredictability. It may seem like Man City and Liverpool win every week, but the reality is that anyone can beat anyone to a much greater extent than in most other top leagues in Europe.
Also, unlike American sports, where there are usually only two outcomes in games, soccer has three, making things even more difficult to predict. There is nothing more frustrating for a bettor than betting on the underdog to win only to see them draw, or worse, reversed.
It all makes it a difficult proposition.
At the World Cup, you want to think about the big picture and the long term. Don’t just back Brazil or Argentina to win, or Karim Benzema to be the top scorer. There is no money to be made there.
Think deeper: which teams do well in World Cups? Teams that concede few goals. This is how international tournaments go. Just look at England in their last two efforts. He reached a World Cup semi-final and a Euro Cup final simply by mounting a solid defense and playing set pieces.
As with underdog betting in the Premier League, you also don’t want to get caught correctly predicting a successful underdog who doesn’t go as far as you need him to.
So don’t back Croatia or Portugal to win, back them to win the group or reach the final.
In the top scorer market, things are also quite interesting. On the one hand, betting on Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo seems like a no-brainer. But look at the latest Golden Boot winners. It is not so simple. In a tournament where a player will play a maximum of 7 games, one big game can change everything.
You want to pick someone on penalties, and ideally someone playing in a group game where your team could get out of hand. If you follow all these tips, you can really enjoy the World Cup and potentially even win some money too.
That should keep you busy until Chelsea is back in action on December 27.
