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A lot has changed since Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (52-2-2, 39 KOs) and Gennady Golovkin (42-1-1, 37 KOs) squared off in 2017 and 2018 with more intangibles coming into play to make Canelo-Golovkin . III as intriguing as their first two encounters. Neither of them is anymore the seemingly invincible and invulnerable fighter they were when they first collided in 2017. Both have had flaws in their respective games exposed by the other and by other fighters they faced along the way.
As the adage goes, a fighter is only as good as he was in his last fight and both Canelo and Triple G looked far from indestructible in their most recent battles; weaknesses in both men previously glimpsed in earlier bouts were amplified.
Canelo’s last fight
In Canelo’s case, he was soundly defeated by Dimitri Bivol. To be fair, Canelo was fighting in a division where his former 5-foot-8, 154-pound frame clearly didn’t belong. Granted, he viciously knocked out Sergei Kovalev at the last moment at 175 pounds in 2019, but not before fighting a fighter who was merely a shell of the formidable fighter he once was and was visibly fatigued at that point in the fight. Against Bivol, Canelo stood his ground and had the moments of him, but was outclassed by a bigger, stronger, longer man who simply refused to be intimidated mentally or physically. But most telling was Bivol’s strong jab that was instrumental in keeping Canelo honest and setting up multi-punch combinations throughout the night.
Canelo is a master at counterpunching, but the jab is the one punch he is less adept at retaliating against. He strikes back with a vengeance after dodging or even getting hit by anything other than the jab, especially up close, but he has fewer answers against the most basic weapon in boxing.
Although Canelo’s susceptibility to the jab was most blatantly exposed by Bivol, the writing was on the wall and it showed in other fights as well, Kovalev, a future hall of famer, was a severely impaired fighter at the time. in which he faced Canelo in 2019 and the jab was the only weapon left to him. This was previously evidenced in his fight with Anthony Yarde and rematch against Eleider Alvarez. Gone are those hard-hitting right crosses, left hooks and bone-crushing body shots that crushed many an unlucky opponent. Still, Kovalev’s jab was only enough to send Canelo into convulsions all night before the violent stoppage in the 11th round.
Despite lacking the size and range advantage that Bivol had, Golovkin packs a laser-like, stinging, precise punch that is often overlooked because it is overshadowed by the more colorful and devastating weaponry he has in his arsenal. The most important thing is that he has already shown the effectiveness of it in his two previous meetings against Canelo, especially in the first one. When Golovkin pumped his jab into doubles and triples, he forced Canelo to reset and reconfigure. Govalev’s misstep was to abandon his jab for long stretches, which allowed Canelo to restore momentum and rhythm. If Golovkin implements the jab with more consistency and discipline in the rubber match, he could change the whole aspect of what transpired in the first two matches.
Golovkin’s last fight
While Canelo was vastly outmatched in his loss to Bivol, he didn’t absorb a debilitating amount of punishment. Golovkin did. Ryota Murata relentlessly tore at Golovkin with both fists to shake and shake the Kazakh powerhouse like never before. Golovkin finally proved that he still had the goods, the guts and the common sense to win the war of attrition and stop Murata in the ninth round.
But his body language looked terrible.
In his heyday, Golovkin’s defense was never bulletproof, but it was adequate enough that he didn’t get hit flush as often. When he was nailed down, his concrete chin ensured little to no consequence. But against Murata, he was a stationary target, there to be hit hard, often, and cleanly. Most significantly, he seemed to wince in pain as Murata, not known for his body shots, pounded into his torso. It was an Achilles’ heel previously exposed by Sergiy Deveryenchenko, who was the first man to seriously hurt Golovkin with a left hook to the body. Rest assured, this newly discovered chink in Golovkin’s armor has not gone unnoticed by Canelo and his team and will be added to his playbook on September 17. And we have all witnessed how destructive Canelo can be when he targets the liver. .
The problem with using Golovkin’s last fight as a mettle detector is that Murata was and remains an enigma in the sport. Despite winning Olympic gold in 2012, Murata proved limited enough in the professional ranks to leave the decisions to two B-caliber fighters, Hassan N’Dam, N’Jkam and Rob Brant. But he, too, proved tenacious and adaptable enough to avenge both defeats with upset victories. Who did Golovkin fight but ultimately beat him? An underachiever extraordinaire or a talented, tough-as-nails samurai who put up the most inspired fight of his life in front of fans from his hometown of Tokyo?
Returning to the topic of body shots, both fighters, especially Golovkin, were curiously conservative and moderate with torso shots in their previous two matchups. Both have shown the power and propensity to deflate supremely conditioned men with liver injections, but unusually held in each other’s torsos. We now know that Golovkin doesn’t react well to body shots and Canelo will no doubt try to capitalize on that. But so far in his career, Canelo has never tasted his own body medicine. What happens if Golovkin decides to pierce it from below?
Weights and Measures
Unlike the first two fights, the third will be fought at 168, where Canelo reigns as the unified champion. Having defeated four super middleweight champions to claim that distinction, there is no question about his ability to fight at that weight; he handles it well and has the same finishing power that he had in the lower divisions.
As for Golovkin, he will fight eight pounds above the weight he has competed at for the entirety of his 16-year pro career spanning 44 fights. How will you carry the extra weight? Will it slow him down? Enhance his already formidable power? If he strengthens his abdomen with extra muscle, will it increase the resistance of his punches against body shots?
But however the extra weight affects Golovkin, it likely won’t have as much of an impact on his performance as his advanced age. With few and far between exceptions (Bernard Hopkins, Archie Moore and maybe George Foreman), Father Time is undefeated in this and most other sports.
In the brutal and unforgiving world of boxing, every year a fighter’s reflexes, speed and stamina deteriorate exponentially further once they reach their 30s. Golovkin is 40 years old. This could spell trouble against Canelo’s relatively young 32.
Cinnamon-focused judges
To say that the judges have been charitable to Canelo throughout his career might be an understatement. This was especially the case in his previous two fights with Golovkin and also in other recent and not-so-recent fights.
In the Bivol fight, the three identical scores of 115-113 correctly favored the deserving winner but seemed generous to the loser. Against Kovalev, Canelo was credited with rounds in which he threw very few punches and landed even fewer while he was on the receiving end of Kovalev’s jab. And going back to 2013, the majority decision he dropped against Floyd Mayweather Jr. was a travesty in light of the fact that Canelo was completely dominated and might not have won a single round.
Having been robbed of victory at least once against Canelo, Golovkin might feel compelled to take the decision out of the hands of the judges and go for the knockout. But, as mentioned above, Canelo is one of the best return firers, so Golovkin will open himself up to deadly counters. Canelo has openly stated that he will be looking for a KO. Neither man has ever fallen or come close to being stopped, but both have set the stage for this collision course to end in the distance.
Read the prediction for Alvarez-Golovkin III at: https://peterliminator.blogspot.com/2022/09/saul-canelo-alvarez-vs-gennady-golovkin.html
