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The first time, regardless of feelings about the decision, it was a great fight.
The second was better.
Can two of the greatest rivals of the 21st century outdo each other once again?
That will be the hope of everyone who enters the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas or tunes in at home (DAZN PPV, 7 pm EST). It’s been a long time since the sequel, roughly four years, and it remains to be seen if both men in the equation can deliver what they did in 2018.
They have gone different ways.
Alvarez is 7-1 since winning the Golovkin rematch. Six of the seven wins were against men ranked in the top ten of their weight class (from middleweight to light heavyweight) by both TBRB and Ring Magazine. Alvarez added a title at light heavyweight and unified the super middleweight division along the way, but he comes this weekend off the heels of a decisive light heavyweight loss to Dmitry Bivol.
Golovkin is 3-0 since the loss to Alvarez, with all three wins coming against the top ten middleweights. Golovkin regained the IBF crown and added the WBA belt in his last outing with a stoppage of Ryota Murata. For the first time, the aging slugger will move on to challenge for gold at super middleweight, seeking the rights to a lineal crown that eluded him at 160 pounds.
Let’s get into it.
Statistics and Bets
Saul Alvarez
Age: 32
Titles: Ring/WBC/WBA Super Middleweight (2020-Present, 2 Defenses); WBO Super Middleweight (2021-present, 1 defense); Lineal super middleweight/TBRB/IBF (2021-present, 0 defenses)
Previous Titles: WBC Super Welterweight (2011-13, 6 defenses); Ring Jr. Middleweight (2013); WBC Middleweight (2015-16, 1 defense); TBRB Middleweight (2015-17); WBO Jr. Middleweight (2016-17); Ring World Middleweight (2015-18, 2 Defenses); IBF Middleweight (2019); Lineal World Middleweight (2015-20, 4 Defenses); TBRB/Ring/WBC/WBA Middleweight (2018-Present, 1 Defense)
Height: 5’8
Weight: 167 ½ pounds.
Posture: Orthodox
Comes from: Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico
Record: 57-2-2, 39 KOs
Record in Main Title Fights: 17-2-1, 10 KOs (18-2-1, 11 KOs including WBA subtitle fights)
Last five opponents: 118-2 (.983)
Notable results, TBRB and/or ranked opponents in the ring: Ryan Rhodes TKO12; Josesito Lopez TKO5; Austin Trout UD12; Floyd Mayweather Jr. L12; Erislandy Lara SD12; Miguel Cotto UD12; Amir Khan KO6; Liam Smith KO9; Gennady Golovkin D12, MD12; Rocky Fielding TKO3; Daniel Jacobs UD12; Sergei Kovalev KO11; Callum Smith UD12; Billy Joe Saunders RTD8; Caleb Plant TKO11; Dmitri Bivol L12
Additional current/former starters facing each other: Miguel Vázquez SD4, UD10; Carlos Baldomir KO6; Lovemore N’Dou UD12; Kermit Cintron TKO5; Shane Mosley UD12; Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. UD12
against
Gennady Golovkin
Age: 40
Titles: IBF middleweight (2019-present, 2 defenses); WBA Middleweight (2022-Present, 0 Defenses); IBO middleweight (2019-present, 2 defenses);
Previous titles: WBA middleweight (2013-18, 14 defenses*); WBC middleweight (2014-18, 7 defenses); IBF middleweight (2015-18, 4 defenses); IBO middleweight (2013-18, 12 defenses)
Height: 5’10 ½
Weight: 167 ¾ pounds.
Posture: Orthodox
Hails from: Los Angeles, California (He hails from Kazakhstan)
Record: 42-1-1, 37 KOs
Press Ratings: #1 (TBRB, Ring, BoxRec), #2 (ESPN)
Record in Main Title Fights: 17-1-1, 15 KOs (23-1-1, 21 KOs including interim or subtitle fights)
Last five opponents: 118-4-2 (.960)
Notable results, TBRB/Ring rated foes: Grzegorz Proksa TKO5; Gabriel Rosado TKO7; Matthew Macklin TKO3; Curtis Stevens RTD8; Daniel Geale TKO3; Marco Antonio Rubio KO2; Martin Murray TKO11; David Lemieux TKO8; Kell Brook TKO5; Daniel Jacobs UD12; Saul Alvarez D12, L12; Sergio Derevyanchenko UD12; Kamil Szeremata RTD7; Ryota Murata TKO9
Other current/former champions faced: Kassim Ouma TKO10
*Golovkin initially won the interim WBA title in 2010, upgraded to his subtitle and made five defenses before becoming the WBA’s premier champion.
The Alvarez case: While Alvarez is coming off a loss, Bivol was a very different challenge than Golovkin. The youngest, longest and most technically astute light heavyweight came to boxing to fight his way to victory and he did. In Golovkin, Alvarez will face a man who isn’t going to track him down all night. In both the first and second fights, Alvarez got off to excellent starts. In the first, he won both opening frames on all three cards. In the rematch, Álvarez won the second and third rounds on all scorecards. A good start here would allow Alvarez to put the Bivol loss behind him and force Golovkin to be aggressive early on. Alvarez’s body attack has been potent against Golovkin so far and Golovkin seems to have started slower in his last two bouts. Alvarez might want to end this series with a stoppage, but he doesn’t need to. Alvarez’s advantages in speed and defensive reflexes employed with an eye to racking up rounds provide a clear path to victory.
The Golovkin case: Golovkin should have had his first fight, but he didn’t and it could be the decision that will haunt him forever. This is your last chance to exorcise him, and to do so, he may have to bolt. It’s not to say Golovkin can’t settle down somewhere in the middle of the fight with his sights set on a final push, but the older man can’t afford to fall behind early and play catch-up. Golovkin needs to establish his jab, be more aggressive with the body than he was in either of the first two fights and force Alvarez into places where the champion gets reckless. Both men have excellent chins, but if he can make Alvarez uncomfortable and back him up, if Golovkin can overcome some of the skepticism about where he is physically in 2022 and at age 40, it could influence the perception of a fight that is close. Golovkin can get the benefit of the doubt on the rounds this time after so many coin toss frames slipped away last time. The change in division shouldn’t be a disadvantage (Alvarez started lower on the scale) and could even help Golovkin if dropping less weight freshens up his legs a bit.
The Pick: This is the first time Golovkin has entered a fight in the series as the underdog. The idea of Golovkin exceeding expectations in another close fight could work for him in the same way it might have worked for Alvarez before is intriguing. These are two highly skilled and matched fighters who know each other. There’s a good chance another close, close battle will ensue, and the judges are human. They know that many feel that Golovkin won the first two fights with a stronger case for the first. They know that Golovkin is 40 years old.
Ultimately, that feels like the least realistic option. Álvarez will be motivated after Bivol. He didn’t just lose that fight. It looked bad on him, openly frustrated and confused for a long time. Golovkin is a chance to be with someone whose style matches his and whom he can land with authority. Alvarez will go first, it will probably be better for the body, and Golovkin may not have the same tank of gas to stay with Alvarez for three minutes at a time.
It should be another good fight, but the choice here is for this to be the clearest decision of the three, with Alvarez retaining the super middleweight title via decision.
Rold’s 2022 picks: 38-9
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Classification Board, a member of the International Boxing Research Organization, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be contacted at [email protected]
