Canelo Alvarez and Gennadiy Golovkin have fought on equal terms in two previous fights, regardless of how you’ve scored those fights, a draw in 2017 and a majority decision for Alvarez the following year. Both fights took place at 160 pounds.
Can we expect the same in the third installment, at 168, on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas?
The oddsmakers don’t buy it for one obvious reason: Alvarez is 32, Golovkin is 40. How does an old, worn-out version of Triple-G beat one of the best active fighters in his prime?
Here is a breakdown of the fight.
CANELO ALVAREZ (57-2-2, 39 KOs) VS. GENNADIY GOLOVKIN III (42-1-1, 37 KOs)
Date: Saturday, September 17 Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas TV: Pay-per-view Cost: $84.99 ($64.99 for DAZN subscribers) Division: Super Middleweight (168-pound limit) At stake: Álvarez’s undisputed championship Streak of current wins: Alvarez 0; Golovkin 4 Ages: Alvarez 32; Golovkin 40 Postures: Both orthodox Career: Canelo on top; Golovkin on the declineThey also fight: Jesse Rodriguez vs. Israel González, junior bantamweight (for Rodríguez’s WBC title); Ali Akhmedov vs. Gabriel Rosado, super middleweights; Austin Williams vs. Kieron Conway, middleweights. Is it worth watching (up to five stars)? ****
SKILLS SET
Alvarez
Alvarez was not good enough to beat the biggest and best Dmitry Bivol in May, but he is still an excellent fighter. He is smart to close the distance on his opponents, take them down and stop them or win wide decisions while he keeps defense in mind at all times. He also has a great chin, which served him well in the first two fights with Golovkin.
Golovkin
Triple-G is a powerful fighter, perhaps similar to Shane Mosley. He attacks his opponents with the intention of knocking them out but he does it smartly. Make no mistake: he can box. His problem now might be that his body can’t do what it used to. He’s not that fast, his reflexes aren’t that sharp and stamina could be a problem.
Edge: Alvarez
PUNCHING POWER
Alvarez
Alvarez isn’t a one-punch knockout artist, but he does have heavy hands, which means his punches are damaging even when they don’t end fights. His 39 knockouts, including three consecutive stoppages at 168 pounds, speak for themselves. And, yes, some of his fights ended with a big blow.
Golovkin
Golovkin has been one of the greatest punchers of his generation. And he can still rely on the power of him, as we saw in the knockout wins over Kamil Szeremeta and Ryota Murata in his last two outings. However, those fights took place at 160 pounds. Can he take his power to 168? We’ll see.
Edge: Golovkin
EXPERIENCE
Alvarez
Alvarez, who turned pro at 15, has faced every style of boxing imaginable during his 17-year career. And most of those fights have taken place on the biggest stages, which means nothing will faze him. He is 17-2-1 in world title fights, not counting secondary titles. He is as experienced as he gets.
Golovkin
Golovkin also has vast experience. He is 17-1-1 in championship fights, although Alvarez has faced more elite opponents. He has reportedly been boxing for almost 30 years, amateur and professional. He too has seen it all.
Edge: Even
DURABILITY
Alvarez
The fact that Alvarez has gone 24 rounds with a big puncher like Golovkin without serious injury speaks volumes about his ability to throw a good punch. And he has shown no signs of wear and tear despite his long career, a testament to his fitness and toughness.
Golovkin
Golovkin is also a tough guy. However, at 40, his body might be in the process of falling apart after a series of grueling battles. He thus looked against Sergiy Derevyanchenko, although he recovered with two knockouts. And his ability to deliver a good body shot has been suspect for years.
Edge: Alvarez
INTANGIBLES
Alvarez
Álvarez is coming off a loss for the first time in almost a decade. How will that affect you? Will he have made it hungrier and more determined? Or has his confidence been affected? That could play a role in the fight. Of course, he will have support. He’s been with reigning Coach of the Year Eddy Reynoso since he was a kid, which should provide a layer of comfort.
Golovkin
Golovkin still feels he deserved to win the first two fights with Alvarez, both of which took place in the same arena. That begs the question: Can Triple-G get a fair decision against a cash cow like Alvarez in Las Vegas? Many people have their doubts. Golovkin and trainer Johnathan Banks appear to have developed a good relationship. The corner is strong.
Edge: Alvarez
PREDICTION
Golovkin, proud, strong and experienced, will put up a good fight for a while, raising the possibility of an upset. However, midway through the fight, Alvarez’s pressure (hard body shots, combinations to the head) will have begun to wear the old man down. And by the eighth or ninth round, Triple-G will be in trouble. The feeling here is that his determination will allow him to hear the final bell, but a late knockout is a realistic possibility.
Alvarez by unanimous decision
Gallery
Photos: Final Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennadiy Golovkin III press conference
