Of Arsenal’s four regular strikers (Saka, Odegaard, Jesus and Martinelli) so far this season, it’s probably fair to say that Bukayo Saka has drawn the least attention so far. Part of this is because he is (surprisingly, despite his age) the longest serving of the forward four. Our eyes have been most naturally drawn to the contributions of Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus.
Jesus is new and shiny and offers an incalculable improvement on its predecessor(s). Martinelli is energized by the presence of his compatriot, swapping roles and buzzing around the Brazilian senior at will. We’ve been waiting for Martinelli to “blow up” for a couple of seasons and he seems to be boiling.
At his best, Odegaard is a player who demands attention, all the tricks, flicks and pirouettes: slicker than oil, smoother than silk. The data certainly shows the two Brazilians as the most tangibly effective members of the front line. With the “small sample size” siren blaring, the numbers around goals, assists, and expected servings of both say it all. (I should note that Saka’s role in the own goal at Selhurst Park does not count as an assist.)
GoalsXGAssistsXATShotsXG+XA Jesus33.331.5204.8 Martinelli31.701.7203.4 Odegaard31.700.6132.3 Saka11.420.8142.2
The data also reveals the extent to which top players are ‘clustered’. Saka and Odegaard stay very close to the right side. They are both left-handed players and therefore intend to invert the ball and mold their bodies towards the goal. Jesus is a bit of an anomaly because he really drifts all over the place; but he trades with Martinelli more often than with Saka. Jon Ollington’s heatmaps below tell you the story.
Arsenal Starting XI – Pass Received Heat Map pic.twitter.com/BViMXLfCNB
— Jon Ollington (@jonollington) September 10, 2022
At this stage I will refer to a couple of articles I wrote over the summer, the first predicting that Martinelli would really thrive on the Jesus movement and interchangeability. In the second, I talked about the need for Arsenal to fix the left side of their attack to become a more varied and powerful force.
Last season, the combination of Saka and Odegaard was Arsenal’s most traveled attacking path. This season, that has changed. The addition of Zinchenko has added flexibility and technical security to the left, while Jesús has allowed Martinelli to occupy more central positions. In Arsenal’s five attacking lines, Jesús and Martinelli have license to move one or two lines, like pawns on a chessboard.
Xhaka and Zinchenko have also swapped positions at will, as I described in this August article. As a result, Arsenal have happily loosened their reliance on Saka and Odegaard to fire up the attack. The left side is relatively new and also contained the biggest element of surprise, so it made sense to focus attacks on the flank that opponents had less time to study.
According to this excellent video by Jon Mackenzie on Tifo Football (see below), at Crystal Palace on the opening weekend of the season, 36% of the Gunners’ attacks were from the right and 36% from the left. A week later, at home to Leicester City, he switched to 40% on the left and 32% on the right as Arsenal looked to capitalize on that element of surprise.
That’s why I didn’t worry too much in those opening games when some Arsenal fans started softly whispering that Saka didn’t seem to be himself. I always felt that once teams became familiar with the team’s new left pod, attack balance would be restored and Saka and Odegaard would regain some of their dominance.
I think we’ve seen that in the last two games, with Saka much more prominent against Aston Villa and Manchester United, he scored his first goal of the season in the last game. In the first four games of the season, he produced a combined XG of 0.4. In the last two games that has ballooned to a combined 0.9 against Aston Villa (0.5) and Manchester United (0.4).
We can see that it has eased his way into the season, but we also have to recognize the difference between the right and left sides of the team. Since the right back, be it Ben White or Takehiro Tomiyasu, doesn’t really overlap, Saka’s instructions are to stay in the far right attacking lane. He is being asked to stretch the pitch and give Arsenal room on that side.
In short, he does not have the same freedom as Jesús and Martinelli to change lanes and exchange positions. Both Saka and Odegaard largely stay where they are and look to combine on the ball and try to break up opposing defenses in that right-half space. There are also no two orbiting planets like Zinchenko and Xhaka on the right side of midfield.
The right-back is inverted to create a three-defense or three-man midfield, but he is not actually asked to affect play near the touchline. Part of this is because Saka is very, very strong in those areas. At last summer’s Euro, he forced his way into Gareth Southgate’s counter-attack because of the way he is able to move away from opponents in wide areas and carry the ball from midfield to the mouth of the penalty area. .
Meaning, much of his best work happens away from goal, near the touchline, and sometimes even near the halfway line. He can receive 45 meters from the opponent’s goal facing his own and in six or seven seconds he will have it on the right edge of the penalty area. As well as being a structural player who is being asked to maintain width largely on his own on the right, he is also invaluable in bringing the mountain to Mohammed.
While playing for Southgate’s England, Saka’s role was to carry ammunition to Sterling and Kane. Saka’s ability to turn around in tight situations and turn defense into attack allowed Sterling and Kane to stay in areas of the field where they could seize opportunities. Bukayo often plays a similar role in Arsenal’s attack.
The ability to quickly spin and throw into the heart of a defense is one of the most valuable transition traits a team could ask for. The fact that Saka is also given the most tactically rigid role in the forward four is testament to his maturity. Typically, the youngest member of an attacking unit would be expected to have the freest role. We must not pretend that he has found the best form of it yet; but neither should we allow ourselves to become accustomed to his intelligence.
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