Gennadiy Golovkin’s mission on Saturday is almost impossible.
Super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez, who will face Triple-G for the third time on pay-per-view from T-Mobile Arena, could be more vulnerable than usual after his one-sided loss to light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol in May. His confidence had to take a hit.
And you can bet Golovkin will be as motivated as he was in his first two fights with Alvarez, maybe more. At 40, this could be his last big chance.
Does that give him a good chance of upsetting his arch-rival? No. This is why.
The eight-year difference between the fighters was not an insurmountable factor when Golovkin was 35 and 36, their ages for his controversial draw and majority decision loss to Alvarez. Now it could be.
Golovkin (42-1-1, 37 KOs) began to show signs of decline in his October 2019 unanimous but close decision against the resilient Sergiy Derevyanchenko, who pushed the 37-year-old to his physical limits.
He bounced back to stop second-tier opponents Kamil Szeremeta and Ryota Murata (to win two middleweight titles) in December 2020 and last April, respectively. However, while he has kept his power at 160, he seems to have lost a step in terms of speed and reflexes.
Even Golovkin has said he is “close to retirement,” which is not what you usually hear from a fighter entering one of the biggest fights of his career.
He can make up for any shortcomings to a degree with his vast experience and determination, but that only goes so far against an elite opponent who is at or near his prime.
Johnathan Banks, Golovkin’s trainer, counters that no fight is the same four years after their second fight, which is true, but then again, the difference between 32 and 40 in boxing is profound.
Then there is the issue of size.
Golovkin, who has fought at 160 pounds for his entire 16-year career, will move up to 168 for this fight. On the one hand, that might help him. He will have had to spend less energy on gaining weight. On the other hand, he comes up to face a man who has mostly fought at 168 or higher since 2018.
That could mean he’s giving up the one advantage he might have over Alvarez. Can he take his power up to 168? And will he be able to absorb blows from a bigger man? Those are legitimate questions in this fight.
And finally, Alvarez (57-2-2, 39 KOs) will also perform well in this fight. It comes from an embarrassing loss, whether he recognizes that characterization or not. He wants to prove that he’s still the best in the business, if that’s what he was.
Plus, he certainly can’t afford back-to-back losses, particularly against a 40-year-old in the second fight. He may never be seen the same way if he doesn’t raise his hand on Saturday.
That probably doesn’t bode well for Golovkin, even if the old man enters the ring in his current prime.
So let’s add this. Alvarez is much younger, naturally bigger and, according to most, simply better than Golovkin. That’s why oddsmakers have made the Mexican a 4½-1 favorite, which is wide by boxing standards.
None of the above is to say that Golovkin can’t win the fight. Great fighters, even the greatest, sometimes find ways to emerge victorious when virtually no one believes they can.
And make no mistake: Gennadiy Golovkin is a great fighter. Well, at least he was.
