UFC 279: Bettors are all-in on Diaz despite 11% implied probability

The UFC 279 welterweight showdown promises to be a sensation as veteran Nate Diaz takes on rising star Khamzat Chimaev in the Octagon on September 10 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.

If you haven’t checked out the betting odds yet, they’re shocking: Chimaev is currently an incredible -1500 favorite at online sports book, BetUS.com, meaning his implied probability of winning is almost 94% (and that’s actually below where they opened the betting: at one point, Chimaev had -2000, or an implied probability of winning of over 95%. With those odds, a person would have to risk $1,500 just to make a profit of $100.

Diaz, meanwhile, is listed as a +750 underdog, or an implied win probability of less than 12%. Oddsmen clearly have little faith in the Stockton, California native, who was responsible for one of the UFC’s biggest upsets when he defeated Connor McGregor via submission in 2016.

But BetUS customers disagree with sports betting punters at all, according to data released by the company today, which says that an incredible 89% of bets placed by its customers have been on Nate Diaz.

“This fight is the last fight on Diaz’s UFC contract and we all know he loves a good fight. Chimaev is somewhat new to the UFC, but he has an incredible record of 11-0 and that is why we see him as one of the favorites for this fight. But betting Chimaev at those odds is a lot of risk for little reward: you’d have to risk $1,500 just to win $100, and it’s probably why so many of our clients are taking the long odds on Diaz. If Diaz pulls off an upset here, it will be a payday for a lot of our customers,” says Barry Barger, Senior Betting Analyst at BetUS.

Diaz is 21-13-0, but it seems the patrons are trusting the finalist to finish his UFC career strong.

Photo Credit: Christian Petersen/Staff

Roberto Villa is the CEO, Founder, Executive Writer and Senior Editor of FightBook MMA. He is passionate about combat sports and also hosts a podcast for Sitting Ringside. He is also a former MMA Fighter and Kickboxer.

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